Flying high noted Greek business in 2022, with sales rising significantly across all sectors. It can reasonably and easily be assumed that this is the result of the high inflation that (also) characterized the Greek economy last year.

In addition to the overall picture of a 31% increase in nominal sales in 2022 compared to the previous year before the pandemic, there are two interesting facts in 2019 that highlight the relative National Bank study:

• first, that deflated sales growth is also high, at 11% overall, and
• Secondly that the largest increase in nominal and mainly in deflated terms was recorded in sectors not directly related to final consumption, such as high-tech industry and construction.

At the same time, gains were evident throughout the year, with fourth-quarter deflationary sales 15% higher than in 2019, the third-largest increase in the European Union (both compared to 2019 and with the previous quarter). . This acceleration was consistent with the dynamics of business GDP, while at the same time there was a continuous improvement in terms of operating profitability and investment activity.

In particular, in the construction industry in the fourth quarter of 2022 (compared to the corresponding quarter of 2019), deflationary sales increased by 40%, with construction activity in Greece reaching the highest figures in the EU. The high-tech sector recorded the highest real sales growth rate in Greek business, with 47% growth in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. signs of convergence of trends with the European average. The ICT (information and communication technology) sector, led by the IT industry, increased its deflationary sales by 40% in the fourth quarter of 2022 (compared to 2019).

Another encouraging element follows from the study of the National Bank: the dynamics of these industries is not limited to their narrow object, but also extends to related industries. For example, in addition to the construction sub-sectors (infrastructure, buildings, special constructions), fast-growing industries now include almost all activities that support construction (eg architects, metals, minerals).

Research and development is also gaining a share in the Greek business sector.

Moreover, in addition to the high growth rates recorded in the high-tech industries, namely the pharmaceutical industry, mechanical engineering and the electronics industry, R&D is starting to gain a share in the Greek business sector. Another example of the letter is the fact that Greek businesses, from the IT industry to consulting services, seem to be increasing their demand for renovation services.

Growth, although smaller in deflated terms, was recorded in the so-called traditional Greek manufacturing industries such as the food industry. While they struggle to keep up with the momentum of the fast-growing Greek business sectors, they are comfortably above 2019 activity levels (in undervalued terms).

Exchange

The largest branch of Greek business, commerce, although underwhelming in its performance, has managed to surpass pre-pandemic levels (in deflated terms), thereby confirming a return to normal consumer behavior. The wholesale sector increased its sales by 4% in Q4 2022 compared to Q4 2019 (38% nominal revenue growth), while real retail sales grew by 8%, nominal sales increased by 19%.

Sales growth of 12.1%, to 382 billion, this year NGE “sees”

The outlook for Greek business remains positive in 2023, with early signs extremely encouraging as deflated sales rose by 15% in January 2023 compared to January 2022, and construction and high-tech manufacturing remain key pillars of development, fueled by the customer-focused service sector. foreign market. (tourism and transport).

According to the National Bank, in general this year, sales in all sectors will increase by 7.2%, while nominal sales growth is estimated at 12.1% and will reach 382 billion euros in 2023 from 341 billion euros in 2022.

In particular, with the first months of the year still maintaining the momentum of recovery from the pandemic, the annual growth rate is expected to be positive, but will slow down throughout the year, but will exceed the level of 2019 by 18-19% in all quarters of 2023. .

It is estimated that in 2023, in the high-tech industry, real sales growth will be 59%, in construction – 27%, ICT – 14%, transport – 11%, tourism – 8%, other services – 7%, other industry – 5%, and in trade, a 2% increase in actual sales. %.

The estimate for 2024 is also positive, with actual sales expected to increase by 4.4% (a nominal increase of 7.1%) to reach 410 billion euros next year.

The sectoral structure of Greek business is estimated to continue on its course towards gradual convergence with the EU, an assessment that the NBG study bases on the following assumptions: first, given that investment (private and public) is expected to be the driving force behind the Greek economy in 2023 year, construction and information technology will operate in conditions of increased demand. Secondly, the external attractiveness of Greece will increase mainly in the service sector (tourism and transport) and, secondly, in the field of goods (mainly in favor of the high-tech industry).

However, there are three factors that are expected to largely determine the development of the Greek business in general and sales in particular. On the one hand, there are positive signs for the tourist season, and on the other, increased uncertainty about political developments. 2023 is an election year with a scenario of forming a government from the first Sunday, whenever a national election is held, extremely weak. Second, while inflationary pressures are already easing, prices remain well above their pre-2022 levels. The combination of the above, i.e. inflation and political uncertainty, will potentially negatively impact demand.