Shares of Credit Suisse rose today after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) provided liquidity, jumping 18% and recouping most of yesterday’s 24% loss.

The Swiss bank’s announcement that it would take out a 50 billion franc ($54 billion) loan from the SNB also helped boost European equities today.

However, according to analysts, the “truce” may be temporary.

Analysts at JPMorgan say a loan from the SNB will not be enough to assuage investors’ concerns. At the same time, they see an acquisition by Credit Suisse more likely.

Shelter Island Capital Management founder Luis Arenzana said that “Credit Suisse has lost five of the last nine years.”

JP Morgan analysts also believe that a takeover of Credit Suisse by the largest Swiss bank UBS is the most likely scenario. “We believe that liquidity support from the SNB is not enough,” they say.

“After yesterday’s extreme volatility in stocks, the Swiss authorities offered their support, which is a strong and important signal. We hope that these measures will calm the markets and break the negative spiral … However, it will take time to fully restore confidence in the franchise, ”says an analyst at Vontobel Bank.

Head of Markets Hargreaves Lansdown said “the $54 billion bailout alleviates concerns about increased withdrawals from the bank and the impact on other lending institutions around the world exposed to its operations.”

The value of CDS Credit Suisse, which insures bonds against default risk (CDS), fell today after rising yesterday to levels seen in a big problem.

Eyes on Cr. Lagarde

Currently, it is assumed that the European Central Bank may step back and raise the key interest rate not by 50 basis points (0.5%), but only by 25 basis points. (0.25%), which makes the forthcoming speech of the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde later on Thursday extremely interesting.

If it is determined that there is a systemic risk in terms of servicing loans due to the interest rate race, it is possible that Frankfurt will stop the pace of increasing its base interest rate. Considering again that inflation is a bigger risk and that Credit Suisse’s problem was adequately dealt with by the country’s central bank’s fire-fighting move – as the markets show – then the ECB will continue to halve. percentage point, as he announced.

As former Bank of England Deputy Governor Sir John Jeev pointed out to the BBC, central banks in both the US and Switzerland have sent a clear signal to the world that any individual banking crises will be dealt with locally without causing problems in the international system. .