Today ends the year Russian invasion of Ukraine and when the second year of the war begins, they count the wounds left economies around the world And global economy. There are certainly many of them, as growth slowed worldwide and the initial surge in energy prices hit the living standards of many countries in both Europe and developing countries. However, the most pessimistic forecasts of a recession in Europe and even widespread power outages and the collapse of its economy have not been confirmed. Russia.

How does he appreciate it? IMF, global economic growth slowed last year due to the war to 3.4%, below the average of 3.8% over the past two decades. After all, it is expected to slow even more this year, falling to 2.9%. As for inflation, it was partly a by-product of the pandemic and the attack on the supply chain, but it was most accelerated by the war. Thus, over the past year, it has reached the global average of 8.8%, and it is expected that, despite the constant increase in interest rates by large and small central banks, in 2023 it will remain at a rather alarming level of 6.6%. for some time at levels clearly above the pre-pandemic level of 3.5%. The OECD estimates that the war will take a staggering $2.8 trillion out of the world economy this year alone. USD The shock of the war for the world economy is connected with the special weight of Russia in the energy supply of a large number of countries.

In accordance with International Energy Agency, Russian oil accounted for 14% of global production and supply in 2021. Russia exported about 4.7 million barrels per day of “black gold” from the 10.5 million barrels per day it produced in 2021. The biggest buyers were Europe and China, which imported 2.4 million bpd and 1.6 million bpd, respectively. As for the United States, when the war began, the superpower imported only 672,000 barrels of Russian oil per day and completely stopped this import by a special decree from Washington in March last year, shortly after the start of the war. Moreover, before the war, Russia was the world’s fourth largest exporter of natural gas and provided at least 40% of the EU’s needs, and sometimes more. Russia’s weight in the global energy market has caused great instability in the industry.

However, the most pessimistic forecasts of a recession in Europe and even general power outages and the collapse of the Russian economy have not been confirmed.

Of course, the US and oil-producing countries in the Middle East rushed to fill the gap as Europe tried to reduce its energy dependence on Moscow. U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports accounted for 41% of Europe’s imports last year, despite a fire at the Freeport, Texas export terminal, according to Kpler data. After all, this was one of the reasons why Europe avoided recession, as European countries rushed to replace Russian hydrocarbons. And while growth slowed and German industrial output contracted, there were no bankrupt dominoes, no widespread power outages, and no catastrophes predicted in the end.

However, the same is true for Russia itself, which once again defied the Cassandras and experienced a recession of just 2.1% despite a flurry of US and EU sanctions. in its economy, banking system and industry, despite the mass exodus of many Western firms from its market. The war, however, caused widespread concern about the possibility of food shortages around the world, since Russia and Ukraine together account for about 30% of the world’s grain reserves. Their products are mainly exported to Africa, Asia and parts of the Middle East. Uncertainty about food sufficiency quickly led to price spikes as the price of wheat hovered around $8/bushel in the weeks leading up to the war and soared to $10/bushel for the first time in a decade, hitting a record high of $12.47/bushel. bushels in May last year.