OUR China will account for almost half of this year’s increase in demand for oil following the easing of Covid-19 restrictions, as the International Organization announced today Energy (IEA), but limited OPEC+ production could mean supply shortages in the second half.

“OPEC+ supply is predicted to be reduced due to pressure from Russia over sanctions,” the organization’s monthly oil report says.

“Global oil supply looks set to exceed demand in the first half of 2023, but the balance could quickly turn into a deficit as demand recovers and Russian production is blocked.”

International sanctions against Russia aimed at draining capital from Moscow after its invasion of Ukraine have so far had little effect on its oil exports, which fell just 160,000 barrels a day in January from pre-war levels.

But, according to the IEA, production of about 1 million barrels a day remains blocked following a European ban on maritime imports and international sanctions to cap prices.

^{Source: APE-MEB, Reuters, AFP.}