Oil prices could resume growth in 2023 as demand in China recovers after the lifting of Covid-19 curbs and a lack of investment limiting supply growth, OPEC officials told Reuters, pointing to a possible return to $100 a barrel , writes News.ro. .

In 2022, oil prices topped $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014, as demand rebounded after the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions in most of the world and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine fueled supply concerns.

But the price of Brent oil was close to $86 a barrel by the end of the year on fears of a global recession.

A long-term return to oil prices above $100 a barrel would bring more income to OPEC members, whose economies depend heavily on oil revenues, and would be a drag on industrialized economies struggling to control inflation and interest rates.

To support the market, the alliance between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, known as OPEC+, agreed in October to cut production by 2 million barrels a day, or about 2 percent of global demand.

After swings in 2022, when Brent neared an all-time high of $147 a barrel shortly after the start of the war in Ukraine, Brent rose slightly to just above $86 in 2023, helped by Russia’s plan to cut output in March.

OPEC and OPEC+ do not publish oil price forecasts and do not have a target price.

OPEC and OPEC+ officials and ministers are often reluctant to discuss price direction.

In rare public comments on Feb. 8, Iran’s national representative to OPEC, Afshin Javan, said oil prices could return to around $100 in the second half of the year, adding that OPEC+ was likely to maintain current production policies at its next meeting.

“The shadow of the energy crisis will continue to dominate the world, and the general trend of global oil prices is rising”

Reuters spoke privately with five more OPEC officials about oil prices reaching $100 a barrel.

Three of them believed that the price of oil would rise rather than fall in 2023, and two predicted that prices would return to $100 a barrel.

“It must be said that the shadow of the energy crisis will continue to dominate the world, and the general trend of global oil prices is increasing. “In my view, a return to the $100+ mark for Brent at some point in 2023 would not be unexpected,” one OPEC source said.

The industry currently agrees on lower prices than in 2022. A Reuters poll of 30 economists and analysts expects Brent crude prices to average $89.37 a barrel in 2023, up from $99 in 2022.

Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for the price of Brent oil in 2023 to $92 per barrel.

China’s sudden lifting of Covid restrictions is likely to boost oil demand in 2023 after the country is forecast to experience a slight contraction in 2022 for the first time in years.

OPEC sources also predict that the lack of investment will cause insufficient supply to support higher prices.

OPEC members are pumping nearly 1 million barrels a day below their target, according to the group’s own data and other estimates.