His report inflation up to 2% on average from 2024 and maintaining it at this level until at least 2027. Medium-term fiscal strategy for 2024-2027in accordance with the relevant training circular sent to Ministry of Finance to the competent state authorities. For this year, inflation is projected at 5%, as in the budget.

The medium-term outlook will be presented to the European Commission in April and will include primary surpluses throughout its life, although their size will be determined by the revision of the Stability and Growth Pact. At present, Deputy Finance Minister Theodoros Skilakakis’ circular simply indicates to entities asked to complete spending tables that “as of 2024, the general withdrawal clause from the Stability and Growth Pact, which allowed a temporary departure from the financial rules in the previous years 2020-2023. Therefore, our country, like the rest of the EU member states, will once again commit itself to implementing fiscal rules and achieving specific fiscal targets for the period 2024-2027.”

As for the growth rate, at current prices, i.e. adjusted for inflation, it is projected at 6.6% this year, 5.1% in 2024, 4.9% in 2025, 4.1% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027. growth rate of 1.8% this year, a rate consistent with projected inflation of 6.6%.

The Medium Term Scenario will have a baseline scenario with income and expenditure projections over a period of a year that will not include any additional measures beyond those already in place, as outlined in the circular. For example, it will not provide for a new salary scale for civil servants, although the government has already announced it through the Prime Minister and, according to estimates, it will burden the 2023 budget and beyond by 500 million euros. The circular states that when estimating payroll costs, agencies should not take into account the case of an increase in staff due to new hires, relocations, transfers, etc. However, there are likely to be alternative scenarios.

Agencies are invited to submit their assessments by completing the appropriate tables by 6 March. As explained in the circular, “The TPMS establishes specific goals, schedules and performance indicators in order to rationalize and control costs and achieve related financial goals. It provides a summary picture of the size of the government to facilitate economic policy decision making. At the same time, it establishes spending ceilings for the entire period for ministries, as well as balance sheets for other governments.”

According to the scenario developed by the Ministry of Finance, state budget expenditures are expected to decrease in the medium term by about 2.5 billion euros, from 69.9 billion euros in 2023 to 67.6 billion euros in 2027. from the fact that, in addition to the income-expenditure data, the accumulated unliquidated obligations at the end of the previous year should also be taken into account, which is also reported by ELSTAT.