With a positive outlook on your prospects Greek banks JP Morgan analysts returned to their “base” after a short trip to Athens, where they met with bankers, businessmen, government officials, politicians, industry experts, and representatives of the opposition. Thus, the American bank reaffirms its optimism about the stock prices of the four systemically important banks, emphasizing that although, in its opinion, national elections represent a key risk – and during the meetings it was recognized that they entail risks of uncertainty in the short term. term—however, he felt that the business and political worlds “see” a fairly limited risk of a long-term disruption to the opposition’s growth-oriented agenda.

In particular, JP Morgan held meetings with representatives of four systemic banks – Alpha Bank, Eurobank, National Bank and Piraeus Bank, as well as the Bank of Greece, the Ministry of Finance, HFSF, IOBE, Intrum Hellas, Aegean, Heads of OPAP, OTE, Prodea Real Estate Investments and SYRIZA.

Analysts at home held meetings in Athens.

“We come back with our positive view on Greek banks in the medium term,” he notes. The reasons for her optimism, she explains, are related to relatively favorable macroeconomic data, cleaner balance sheets, a good growth trajectory, high interest rate leverage, strong market consolidation, as well as the potential for capital return. As he notes, perhaps the biggest signal of the return of Greek banks to normal life is the intention of the Eurobank and the National Bank to pay a small dividend from the profits of 2022, and later they will be followed by Alfa Bank and Piraeus Bank. With NPE ratios close to European averages and capital levels looking healthy, JP Morgan believes this scenario remains realistic, although still subject to regulatory discussion and approval, with more clarity expected by April-May.

The message from her appointments in Athens was generally constructive, she says, as economic indicators point to a relatively good outlook for 2023, while banks are “seeing” higher returns on equity (ROTE) earlier than previously expected due to behind the steady demand for credit. , ongoing repricing of loans, interest rates on deposits are moving at very low levels, while there are still no signs of deterioration in asset quality. However, the cost of risk will remain high in 2023, with JPM valuing it at 100 basis points on average.