Three warning “bells” he called Institute of Economic and Industrial Researchthrough the mouth of its CEO, Professor Nikos Wettaduring yesterday’s presentation of its quarterly report on Greek economy: per inflationwhich is slightly higher than the Eurozone average. Current account balancethe deficit of which is increasing and unemploymentwhich is estimated to be unlikely to break the 10 per cent barrier.

Growth 1.6%

IOBE has revised its GDP forecasts downward following the announcement of ELSTAT data for the third quarter and thus now forecasts a growth rate of 5.2% for 2022, compared to the previous forecast of 6% and 1.4% for 2023 compared to the previous forecast of 1.6. %. In addition, according to his analysis, while the pace of growth in 2022 was largely the result of consumption, which is estimated to have increased by 7.7% despite inflation, in 2023 investment is projected to be the driving force which are expected to increase. by 8.5%. Consumption in 2023 is estimated to change by 0.8%. Mr. Vettas stressed that “the economy can operate faster than the eurozone average” because “it has more accumulated potential”. On the other hand, exports and investment are under pressure due to the economic slowdown in Europe.

Inflation 4%

He revised IOBE and his inflation forecasts slightly downward. According to him, this year it will be 4% due to lower energy prices, against his previous forecast of 4.2% and against the government’s forecast of 5%, and in 2022, according to his estimates, it will close at 9. 6% against the previous forecast of 9.7%.

Speaking of inflation, Mr. Wettas said that while a low rate of 1.5%-2% is desirable as it helps to de-escalate public debt, a higher rate hurts incomes and at the same time, to the extent that which it exceeds the inflation of our trading partners – harms the competitiveness of the economy. “We would like others to react faster to inflation,” he said. According to data released yesterday, the level of export deflation is very high, while the price pressure on exports is consistently higher than on imports.

In the current account, the deficit between January and October reached 13.6 billion euros, and on a rolling 12-month basis it reached 9.3% of GDP. “The trend towards larger trade deficits as they grow reflects relatively weak competitiveness,” commented Mr. Vettas.

“For our country, parliamentary elections in a few months are important for stability, which will allow for important investments, as well as for the formation of a medium-term policy that can combine two desirable characteristics: seriousness in a dangerous environment and the intention of reformist sections,” said Mr. Wettas.