A flurry of exhibitions from international houses that host Hellas at the forefront of markets for 2023 amid a recovery in investment grade and continued election thorns, with Barclays seem positive for the outlook for the Greek economy as well as Greek bonds.

According to the British bank, one of the main themes of 2023 is the end of austerity in Europeciting as an example Greece as the main beneficiary of this development.

Europe, he points out, is once again going through a critical period. Its business model is undergoing changes related to energy supplies, the costs of power transmission and security, rising defense spending and limited room for growth. Part of this reform will require a weaker fiscal and external balance. “The austerity policies that have prevailed over the past decade seem to be behind us, at least for now, which will help countries on the periphery in particular,” Barclays said.

High performance

Especially HellasIt says it has seen good results so far in terms of economic growth, with exports and investment rising sharply, while spending from the Recovery Fund will accelerate this year, supporting demand.

Based on the favorable Greek debt characteristics and funding structure, such as abundant cash reserves, low funding requirements, long maturities with low fixed interest rates – at a time when most of the debt is held by European institutions – an increase to investment grade at least at least one rating agency is considered long overdue, he said. The achievement of this milestone will lead to increased placement by institutional investors of Greek bonds, which, according to Barclays, will soon trade at the same levels as Portuguese bonds.

And the British bank, like most international banks, stresses that the main short-term risk for Greece and Greek bonds is the elections, with the big question being whether there is an option not to continue with the current policy, given that they will be conducted on a system of simple proportionality. which means it’s hard to get a one-party majority. However, in any case, as he emphasizes, the possibilities for not continuing the policy are much less than in 2015. This is due to the wider movement of Greek politics towards the Center and the need for a coalition that will include the traditional centre-left. sides.

Italian danger

Another risk identified by Barclays is the potential exit of investors from the region due to new concerns about Italy. But he notes that given the ECB’s anti-fragmentation tools and the fact that the region’s spreads are doing well despite his very aggressive tone, long-term Greek government bonds look cheap.