2022 will be a year of triumph Chinaas well as its leader Xi Jinping, who began his second term within a year promising to elevate the country to an absolute superpower. However, it has ultimately been the most difficult and most devastating year under the leadership of the Chinese president and his personal political choice of zero tolerance for the coronavirus. A policy that, as noted in a related CNN report, was pursued with overzealousness for months, resulting in disastrous results for the world’s second economy and an angry backlash from Chinese public opinion, only to suddenly and almost developed, leaving the country’s fragile healthcare system to cope with an explosion of cases.

Now, as the country is experiencing an unprecedented wave of infections and deaths, many are rightly wondering why so many victims were made as part of a zero tolerance policy, and why people waited so long for the economy to restart if the government was finally going to allow the spread of the coronavirus unprepared and practically unwarned population. The question is reasonable, given the price they had blocking within months as they defied all expectations that the Chinese economy would reach the 5.5% growth target it had set for 2022. the lowest levels the world’s second largest economy has known since 1976 and Mao’s death. In the meantime, there is a risk of a global recession that will hit China’s exports.

Reassuring for both China’s leadership and public opinion, however, is the fact that last year’s growth in China’s economy is being revised upwards, given the latest figures. In 2021, China’s GDP grew by 8.4%, not 8.1%, according to official government data. In short, it reached 114.92 trillion. yuan, which corresponds to 16.52 trillion. US dollars and was 80 billion US dollars higher than the initial estimate, i.e., by an amount equivalent to the entire GDP of Bulgaria.

5.5% target rejected, most estimates agree on 2022 growth between 2.8% and 3.2%.

In the end, no less comforting for China is the fact that, according to most economists, even the haphazard lifting of the zero-tolerance policy and the restart of the Chinese economy will have a limited negative impact at the beginning of the year and give impetus to faster economic growth. growth next year. Economists have already revised their estimates of China’s growth in 2022 to around 3%, but are revising their forecasts for next year upward precisely because the zero-tolerance policy on the coronavirus has been lifted. A related Bloomberg survey of economic analysts shows that most believe China’s growth will not exceed 3% this year, but will reach at least 4.9% during 2023. Most economists even assume that after the complete lifting of restrictive measures, growth will slow down. will reach 6.3% for the whole next year.

At the same time, however, economists warn that restarting the Chinese economy will be beneficial, but will bring side effects. They emphasize that the recovery of tourism from China will give an impetus to business development around the world, as well as the service sector in many countries. At the same time, however, picking up growth in energy-hungry China suggests a significant increase in demand for goods and energy, which could prevent a deescalation of inflationary pressures.

For now, an area that is not expected to pick up is FDI in China as confidence remains low and foreign companies remain very cautious. As Noah Fraser, CEO of the Canada-China Business Council, points out, “Many businesses have seen their employees go through such difficult situations in the era of zero tolerance for the coronavirus that they now prefer to wait and see.” Similar assessments and with the President of the EU Chamber of Commerce Gerg Wutke. in China, underscoring that European companies are reluctant to increase their presence in China.