Sixth field discovery in a row natural gas in Cyprus EEZ since the start of the drilling program in Nicosia in September 2011 and the second in 2022 after the discovery of Saturn in August last year, reinforce the already strong positive trends in the emergence of Cyprus and the entire Eastern Mediterranean as a serious alternative supplier of natural gas to the European Union. The region’s strategic importance as a potential balancer of Russian exports has been re-emerged in the context of the EU’s desire to eliminate its import dependence on Russia’s energy exports as soon as possible and at least before the end of this decade.

While this has already been largely achieved in the export sectors of lignite, oil and oil products, completely weaning Europe off Russian gas is proving to be much more difficult than originally thought, and due to the existence of dozens of long-term sales contracts for Gazpromexport that include take-or-pay clauses. ” and due to the increase in Russian exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and the overall economic competitiveness of Russian gas. In any case, EE is in a race both against itself and against those who see the Russo-Ukrainian war as a golden opportunity to destroy the gas industry and demand in Europe, as well as against international, so-called “reliable” existing and potential suppliers who could replace Russian natural gas. .

The problem of European confidence lies, among other things, in this internal contradiction, which is also reflected in the “strategy” of RepowerEU, the search for long-term reliable alternative suppliers, as well as limiting their long-term supply to Europe, if not in 2030, but at the beginning of the next decade. Apparently, some European officials overlook the fact that the development of new deposits – and this is what we are really talking about – does not happen at the speed of a “press release”, but requires at best 3-5 years from the moment the final investment decision is made. made. This practically means that even if there were no EU ambiguity. regarding the future of natural gas and correcting the tragic mistakes of the 2019-2022 period, new available volumes of natural gas that can be guaranteed on a long-term basis for the EU. either from the Caspian or the Eastern Mediterranean will be available around 2026-2028. Therefore, no commercial organization is going to make a final investment decision if they start exporting in 2027 in order to start reducing them in 2030.

As part of this European semi-absurdity, which will sooner or later collide with reality, Cyprus continues to add new discoveries to the potential export volumes of natural gas, confirming the existence of a system of small deposits around the perimeter of the Eratosthenes seamount, which are similar in their geological origin to Zor, but far from the huge size (about 30 trillion cubic feet) of the Egyptian deposit.

These fields are scattered between three adjacent offshore blocks 6, 7 and 10, which are being developed by various joint ventures. One is Exxon/Qatar Petroleum and it concerns Block 10, where the potential Glafkos field was identified in March 2019, and the other is the ENI/Total Energies consortium, which has rights to Blocks 6 and 7, where the potential fields were identified. Saturn (August 2022) and Jupiter (December 2022). Potential deposit “Jupiter” 2-3 trillion. cubic feet is small, smaller than both Glaucus and Venus (4-4.5 trillion cubic feet) and similar, if not identical, to Saturn (2.5 trillion cubic feet).

However, from a geopolitical point of view, this is very important, as it effectively refutes the Turkish imperialist “Blue Homeland” (Mavi Watan), even if the discoveries in question occur outside the current boundaries of Turkish claims. The arbitrariness of these claims, and their sheer geographical absurdity, could extend far south of their existing frontiers. It is the principled position of Egypt and the presence of specific international oil companies in the Cypriot EEZ that serve as a deterrent to the possible further expansion of Turkish claims or the adoption of aggressive actions to prevent Cypriot drilling.

Jupiter’s position – as soon as Calypso’s goal is confirmed – is so close to Glaucus and Saturn that it allows their joint operation under certain conditions. And the combined potential of these potential fields could comfortably fill the EastMed gas pipeline if its route were redesigned to approach them and Egypt’s participation in the project was secured in one way or another, or could, subject to further significant (or even more important) opening around existing ones for support even for an LNG terminal in Cyprus.

* Dr. Theodoros Tsakiris is Associate Professor of Geopolitics and Energy Policy at the University of Nicosia.