Caught between a severe economic crisis, disillusioned citizens and his country’s need for foreign capital, Hungary’s President Viktor Orban will spend 2023 trying to befriend European Union partners he has long despised.

The road to redemption appears to be a dead end as the pandemic and war in Ukraine have hit Hungary’s beleaguered economy harder than its European neighbors.

In October, inflation hit 22% year on year, more than double the EU average. According to the International Monetary Fund forecast, GDP growth will slow to 1.8% in 2023 after increasing by 5.7% in 2022. Meanwhile, the Hungarian forint fell 13% against the euro in 2022 and 18% from pre-pandemic levels.

Orban, in power since 2010, was re-elected to a fourth term in April with a comfortable parliamentary majority. But in October, thousands of students and faculty took to the streets to protest soaring prices and stagnant wages.

With a public debt of 75% of GDP and foreign investors reluctant to buy the country’s government bonds, the Hungarian leader cannot turn the tide of the economy without the 13 billion euros in European Union pandemic and stimulus funds earmarked for Budapest. So far, Brussels has only approved €5.8 billion of those funds after Orban made concessions on aid to Ukraine and tax rules.

However, the rest are being detained in retaliation for Hungary’s unwillingness to abandon laws that restrict human rights and the independence of local judges. The IMF warned Budapest and recommended preventing “late or incomplete delivery” of aid, offering a clear incentive to re-establish ties with its EU partners.

Without all EU funds. Orban should abandon his most populist economic measures. The imposition of a ceiling on energy prices, as well as on certain commodities, has led to an increase in demand for fuel, while causing market distortions. Retailers have raised the prices of their products to maintain margins.

Viktor Orban, to be eligible for EU money, needs to make reforms big enough to convince him that it won’t end up in the pockets of friends or businessmen close to the ruling party. In the end, it did its job: Hungary dropped to 73rd in Transparency International’s global corruption perceptions index from 54th a decade ago.

His popularity in the country is less solid. The danger of a situation of economic chaos in Hungary will give him a serious reason to refrain from the most provocative and illiberal position he supports.