“Green light” for the last dose of relief dutywith a total value of 6 billion euros, lit yesterday European Commissionwith the first post-program evaluation Greeceupon expiration enhanced supervision.

The assessment reaches a positive final conclusion and thus finance ministers are invited to agree to the eighth and final repatriation of central bank profits from Greek bonds (SMP and ANFA), but also in the 2% interest margin (upward margin) exemption that was imposed on the 2012 EFSF loan to buy back the debt and will be paid until 2049. However, the report notes serious problems for the Greek economy. , as well as some delays in meeting the 22 prerequisites that were “transferred” from a period of enhanced oversight to simple post-program monitoring. In particular, there are delays in the field of primary health care, in the institute of a personal doctor, as well as in the codification of labor legislation, which is dated March 2023. Arrears are declining but remain above targets, including pensions, as indicated. Thus, a new term for the payment of pensions was introduced in February 2023, and for the remaining debts – in December 2022. There is also a slight delay in the payment of fallen state guarantees.

The Commission sees problems for banks as it finds early signs of an increase in NPLs, as well as slow repayment rates for debts that are in the hands of servicing companies. In fact, the report calls on the government to deal with the legal uncertainty caused by the Supreme Court’s decision not to allow service companies to initiate foreclosure action. A slowdown in the economy and rising borrowing costs are also a risk to banks’ profitability, the Commission’s report notes.

The report is accompanied by a debt sustainability analysis, according to which Greece is still able to service its debt, provided that it remains in the zone of primary surpluses from 2023. Overall, Greece faces low risks in the short term, high risks in the medium term and moderate in the long term, and the picture is improving compared to the previous report in the short to medium term. However, the analysis is based on the assumption of primary surpluses of 3.1% of GDP over several decades, which is extremely ambitious, as stated in the report itself.

The report notes that the costs of support measures against the energy crisis in Greece were among the highest in the EU, but most of them did not target the most vulnerable households and businesses and did not send messages about the need to save energy. It is noted that, despite the recent correction, there is room for further improvement.

Fiscal risks remain high as a possible further slowdown or even recession could undermine the core surplus target. Inflation can also put pressure on public sector wage increases or support for vulnerable populations.