Brian Bergey and his wife Ruixi Hu’s culinary travel business remains afloat. China and survives despite three years of severe restrictions against her pandemic. However, as enthusiasm grows in international capital markets, the second largest economy world may finally come out of lockdown in 2023, these two are packing their bags. “I remain very pessimistic about the opening of China,” Bergi said. Their company, Lost Plate, which has been taking guests on organized food tours to several cities in China since 2015, will look to other options in Southeast Asia.

China, the last major country not to treat the virus as something endemic, unveiled a set of 20 new measures a few days ago to ease its strict pandemic policy. As a result, Chinese group stocks, bonds and the yuan seemed to be gaining strength, while overall there was strong investor interest in a wide range of assets from Asia to Europe to Latin America. If China is reunited with the rest of the world next year, investors say, its economy will recover from its worst recession in decades, and with it the prospect of a global recession in 2023 could disappear. But this optimism contrasts with the grim economic reality inside China.

Businesses struggle to survive as measures are gradually eased.

Many businesses, especially those that have personal contact with their customers, fear they won’t make it to 2023. because of the government’s tough measures, they don’t spend their money. “The biggest challenge for us is to see in February and March who really survived,” said Shanghai-based American businessman Camden Hawes, who owns a café, a bar, several matcha tea stalls and an events company in the city. The 25 million people living in the city of Shanghai, hard hit by a two-month “lock-in” in their homes earlier in the year, often without access to basic necessities, will continue to avoid crowded places. over an extended period of time, regardless of the rules, as Camden Hawes anticipates, adding: “People are not going to flip a switch and go back to how they lived in the past.”

China’s economy is expected to grow by about 3% this year, falling short of its 5.5% target. A series of October economic data came in below already weak expectations. Exports have fallen. Inflation has slowed down. New bank lending has dwindled and the real estate recession has deepened. As cases of the virus worsen, China is unlikely to move to higher growth rates in the near future. Cities with more than 10 new cases account for 780 million people and 62.2% of GDP, about three times the level at the end of September, according to JP Morgan. Vaccination rates remain relatively low, especially among vulnerable populations such as the elderly. As a result, the new coronavirus regulations have not been applied uniformly. Local authorities in some Chinese cities have eased restrictions, while others have tightened.