Higher risks compared to previous years for its adequacy electrical system across Europe in the winter of 2022-2023, finds ENTSO-E (Association of Electricity Network Operators of Europe), with the biggest problem occurring in the two months of January to February. He even believes that it is very likely that measures to reduce the risk of failure will be required, mainly stress reduction. The measure is a small voltage drop for several hours and leads to a reduction in consumption while maintaining power to all consumers. As a last resort, system administrators can pre-limit the load locally to keep the system running smoothly.

“The European electricity system is facing adequacy issues that need to be addressed proactively,” notes ENTSO-E in the preliminary results of the Winter Forecast on the adequacy of European electricity systems this winter, which is expected to be announced by 1 December, and notes that mitigation measures will be required to ensure a safe power supply. Decrease in demand electricity with emergency containment measures of 10% (European regulation) would significantly reduce the risk, but this goal remains voluntary and additional risks may arise, he notes, and thus he assesses the long-term unavailability of nuclear plants in France, Sweden and Finland, limited availability of coal and lignite in Poland and Germany; and increased demand for electricity caused by the transition of residential heating from natural gas to electricity. Each of these factors will put additional pressure on the system, especially if demand is not reduced, and if some of them operate simultaneously, they will require special attention. Risks can be managed through safeguards at the national, regional and European levels, says ENTSO-E, noting that “solidarity, coordination and cooperation at all levels will play a key role.”

He considers a voltage drop or local power outages for several hours to be very likely.

natural gasAccording to the study, it remains important to maintain the adequacy of the electricity supply system in Europe this winter and in the absence of new measures and investments in the coming years. Saving even 5% of electricity consumption during peak hours also has significant benefits in reducing risks to the adequacy of the electricity supply system during the winter.

The winter forecast considers numerous weather and temperature related opportunities that can affect electricity generation and consumption.