When John Major was Prime Minister of Great Britain, he asked Boris Yeltsin to tell him how the Russian economy was doing, “in one word.” Yeltsin, then President of Russia, replied “good.” The Major then asked him to clarify this in a nutshell. “This is not good,” Yeltsin added. With the leaders of the G20’s major economies gathering in Indonesia this week, it’s very difficult to give a similar descriptive assessment of the state of the world. With one word, things are “bad”, and with four “not so bad.” Of course, there are many negatives. The warming of the planet, the global financial crisis, the conflict in Ukraine and the beginning of the Cold War between the West and China. But there are also positive aspects. Russian President Vladimir Putin is losing, authoritarian regimes are faltering, and emissions are likely to peak sooner than expected.

It is not difficult to find reasons to be pessimistic about this so-called “polycriticism”. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has created an energy and food emergency that has led to a global economic downturn.

Inflation was brewing even before the war, partly because the pandemic disrupted supply chains and partly because central banks had been pumping cheap money into the economy for more than a decade. On top of that, there has also been a massive accumulation of debt by both governments and the private sector in China and the developing world, as well as the wealthy. The conflict in Ukraine has further exacerbated inflation and debt. Central banks are raising interest rates and governments can’t borrow as freely, as British short-term prime minister Liz Truss has discovered.

Relations between the world’s rich democracies and China were bad even before Russia invaded Ukraine. Washington and Beijing are starting to tear their economies apart as neither wants to depend on the other in the event of a conflict.

The conflict in Ukraine and the early stages of the Cold War with China mean that it is difficult to reach a global consensus on any issue. Similarly, the climate conference currently taking place in Egypt is unlikely to lead to a negotiated agreement. In Paris in 2015, countries pledged to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. But according to a UN report, the planet is currently moving towards 2.4 to 2.8 degrees. However, a flame burns in the dark. Russia is losing in Ukraine, and Chinese President Xi, Putin’s most important ally, has spoken out against the use of nuclear weapons in the war. Meanwhile, this moment solidified the alliance between America, Europe and like-minded countries around the world. The G20 has weakened, but the G7 of the major industrialized nations are cooperating more closely. The G7’s relations with South Korea, Australia and India are also being strengthened.

Liberal democracies are suffering all over the world, but autocracy is not the best system.