Its progress budget until October, according to data published yesterday, goes to government an opportunity to either take additional support measures this year or achieve a deficit lower than the 1.7% of GDP projected in the draft budget at the beginning of October, and thus send a positive signal to the markets.

In particular, primary deficit of the state budget between January and October amounted to 349 million euros against the target (in the introductory report to the budget for 2022) of a primary deficit of 6,752 million euros.

In addition, tax revenues amounted to 45.6 billion euros, which is 5.1 billion euros or 12.6% more than planned. In particular, in October, tax revenues amounted to 5.066 billion euros, which is 289 million euros or 6% more than planned. As the Deputy Minister of Finance commented Theodoros Skylakakis, this amount is “better than necessary to achieve the goals specified in the draft budget”. Mr Skilakakis added that “October earnings data does not show a major diversification trend towards a very positive economic course in 2022”, while the clouds in the international economy are gathering and slowing trends are observed in Europe.

Tax revenues increased by 5.1 billion euros, or 6%, compared to the plan.

The messages coming to the government from Europe are in favor of building a cushion of this year’s surplus, as growth is projected to drop sharply in 2023 (to 1%, according to the Commission, from 6% this year). ) and keeping inflation high (6%). For this reason, European institutions fear that the government will be pressured either to increase the salaries of civil servants due to the reduction in their income due to inflation, or to support the weaker sections. Since the goal for the coming year is to reach a primary surplus and meeting such needs will be difficult, it seems appropriate to create a “safety cushion”. Moreover, European partners know that the 2023 elections will in any case require additional costs.

The government’s decisions on whether there will be additional measures this year or not will mainly depend on the dynamics of fuel prices, which show strong fluctuations. A diesel subsidy is possible, as even the prime minister has not ruled it out.

What is certain is that the government does not want to risk a deficit target of 1.7% of GDP this year and certainly does not want to disappoint markets and rating agencies with an investment-grade target for 2023.

The budget, which will be presented next Monday, provides for a higher growth rate for this year than in the draft budget (5.3%), but below the Commission’s forecast (6%). He also predicts higher inflation close to 10%. For 2023, growth rates will be below the projected 2.3%, and inflation will be above 3%.