On November 15, the total world population crossed the 8 billion mark. This evolution from 7 to 8 billion people took just 12 years, resurrecting long-standing fears associated with rapid population growth, including food shortages, high unemployment, depletion of natural resources, and rampant environmental degradation. However, the most serious demographic problem is the aging of the population. The specter of the global demographic bomb has actually been neutralized (more precisely, it has naturally evaporated). The rate of world population growth has slowed significantly in recent decades and will continue to decline. While India is projected to overtake China in 2023 to become the most populous country in the world, the CAGR is projected at 0.7% over the period 2020-2040, below the global average of 0.8%. And the coronavirus pandemic has had little impact on the size and growth of world population, despite an estimated 15 million direct and indirect deaths associated with it and a nearly two-year reduction in life expectancy in its first two years.

Population growth rates vary considerably between countries, income groups, and geographic regions. Growth is disproportionately high in low-income countries and Africa, and disproportionately low in middle- and (especially) high-income countries and Europe. Population aging is the most common and dominant global demographic trend due to declining birth rates, increasing life expectancy and a significant proportion of the population approaching old age. These changes portend a combination of colossal medical, social and economic challenges in the coming decades. Addressing them will require significant lifestyle changes, public and private investment, institutional and policy reforms, and technological innovation. But if there is inaction, the consequences will be catastrophic: a shrinking workforce to support an ever-increasing number of retirees, a subsequent explosion in age-related diseases and related care costs, and a decline in the quality of life of older people due to a lack of human, financial and organizational resources. Demographic change tends to be evolutionary rather than revolutionary compared to other important factors influencing social and economic well-being, such as pandemics, civil and interstate conflicts, and technological change.

Achievable goals for population readiness include improving reproductive health, providing citizens with human and natural capital, and promoting healthy ageing. The WHO specifically requires 150-300 minutes of moderate aerobic physical activity per week for adults aged 18-64. With regard to healthy aging, WHO recommends that adults aged 65 and over increase their physical activity through exercise and strength training three days a week. Unfortunately, finally, one in four adults worldwide does not meet these standards, according to WHO data for 2020.

* Article published in the IMF’s journal Finance and Development.