The European Commission upgraded its estimate for Romania’s economic growth this year to 5.8% from the 3.9% it forecast in July, according to its autumn economic forecast released on Friday.
After a successful 2022, Romania’s economy is expected to slow, growing by around 2% in the following years, due to higher inflation, tightening financial conditions and the negative effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Thus, the European Commission forecasts the growth of the Romanian economy by 1.8% in 2023 and by 2.2% in 2024.
Inflation is expected to peak later this year, remain high in 2023, and then ease in 2024. According to EC estimates, the inflation rate will be 11.8% in 2022, 10.2% in 2023 and 6.8% in 2024.
The unemployment rate will be around 5-6%. Specifically, the unemployment rate will be 5.4% in 2022, 5.8% in 2023 and 5.4% in 2024.
The government deficit is expected to gradually decline to 4.8% of GDP in 2024 following strong receipts and a decline in current expenditure as a percentage of GDP, mainly due to strong nominal GDP growth. The deficit will be 6.5% of GDP in 2022, 5% of GDP in 2023 and 4.8% of GDP in 2024.
The share of debt to GDP will be 47.9% in 2022, 47.3% in 2023 and 47.6% in 2024.
The European Commission publishes two sets of detailed forecasts (spring and autumn) and two sets of intermediate forecasts (winter and summer) every year. Interim forecasts include annual and quarterly GDP and inflation figures for all member states for the current year and next year, as well as aggregated data for the EU and the eurozone.
Source: Agerpres
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