German companies they have never, even in the midst of a pandemic, been so pessimistic and so concerned about their sales as they are now, in the face of energy crisis and the economy is on the brink recession. Thus, the latest relevant opinion polls show that German businessmen fear the worst. 52% believe the situation will worsen in the next 12 months, according to a survey conducted by the Association of German Chambers of Commerce and Industry, known by its acronym DIHK. Only 8% of respondents expect the situation to improve. As Martin Wansleben, head of DIHK, notes, “This is the worst picture that has ever emerged from these polls since 1985, when we started them.” He notes that even during the coronavirus pandemic and the global financial crisis, “the percentage of optimists has always exceeded 10%.” He emphasizes that German leaders’ estimates point to an imminent recession with Germany’s GDP shrinking by 3% next year. The picture emerging from the estimates of German industrialists is clearly more pessimistic than the picture of the German government, according to which economic activity will decline by 0.4% in 2023.

They see a 3% contraction in Germany’s GDP, while only 8% of respondents expect the situation to improve.

The obvious reason is the heavy dependence of German industry on cheap natural gas supplied to it from Russia until a few months ago, and the magnitude of the blow dealt to it when Moscow cut off the fuel supply. According to a DIHK survey, 82% of businesses now list energy and raw materials as a risk to their business. The energy crisis has forced energy-intensive industries to reduce economic activity, causing one in four chemical industries and one in six automotive industries to cut production. And at the same time, 17% of German automakers are thinking about moving production to another country, and 41% of German companies in all industries characterize their economic situation as “difficult”. The corresponding percentage last year was 31%.

The results of this survey contrast sharply with a similar survey conducted on Monday by the German economic institute Ifo in Munich. A completely different picture emerges from this survey: German businesses are clearly less worried today than they were at the height of the pandemic. In particular, only 7.5% of companies say in October that they are in danger of closing, and the corresponding percentage in June 2020 reaches 21.8%. In addition, the German industry is facing another problem – an acute shortage of labor, which affects its competitiveness. The shortage of skilled workers caused by an aging population exacerbated by the pandemic is particularly affecting large manufacturing industries, from Airbus SE to German giants BMW AG and BASF SE. The latest surveys show that 50% of industrial enterprises in Germany are reducing production due to lack of staff. It has even been calculated that this deficit and the subsequent reduction in production is costing the German economy $85 billion a year.