We are approaching winter, a difficult time to reduce load, primarily in industry and inevitably in the household, as well as an aggravation of geopolitical relations between the West and Russia, which could lead to a complete halt in Russian gas supplies.

The illusions of Brussels bureaucrats that Europe could replace two-thirds of Russian gas imports this year, fixed last May in the famous REPowerEU plan, were dashed after failed attempts to secure long-term supply contracts with third-party LNG suppliers and producers. leaving a heavy financial and social footprint. The EU, after successive record highs in natural gas prices and wholesale electricity prices skyrocketing to unimaginable levels, seemed to be turning to realism in the last two weeks and looking for workable immediate action to contain prices. and ensuring energy adequacy, which lead to one thing and one thing only: reduced demand for natural gas and electricity.

The proposal to impose a restriction on Russian gas supplies was categorically rejected at Friday’s meeting of the Council of Energy Ministers, even by countries that took the initiative, such as Poland.

Europe is realizing that there is no magic solution to the problem of falling prices and that the only way to avoid a blackout if Russia turns off the gas taps is to reduce demand. Thus, after a mandatory 15% cut in natural gas in the event of an emergency, a 10% cut is recommended in electricity demand, with a target of a mandatory 5% during peak hours. After all, most European governments have already taken mandatory measures to reduce demand for natural gas and electricity.

There are also no magic bullets for Greece in the event of supply disruptions in the CU pipeline that brings Russian gas to the Greek system, although it is much better protected energetically than other EU member states. The participation of Russian gas in meeting demand in July fell to 35% from about 45% in the first half of the year, as a result of both a 12.8% decline in domestic demand for natural gas in the same month and an increase in the use of lignite for electricity generation. If Russian gas stops flowing into the Greek system, the electricity generation system, which is more than 40% dependent on imported fuel, will come under significant pressure. This is the main reason why Greece reacted to the Commission’s proposal to set a ceiling for Russian gas.

Stockpiles agreement in Italy, exploitation of Revitus and doubling of lignite production in preventive actions.

However, the country is preparing for any surprises and is now subjecting the system to a stress test. Minister Kostas Skrekas, according to classified information “K”, shortly before leaving for the Council of Energy Ministers, asked PPC, Elpedison and Iron to put natural gas plants into operation with diesel fuel for 120 hours in September to set in practice how they can respond if necessary. These are the Komotini and Lavrio IV PPC units, two Elpedison units (ENTHES and Thisvi) and three Iron small open cycle units that can also run on diesel fuel, providing the system with a total capacity of 1795 MW. . These units, according to the plan of preventive measures approved by the RAE, should have 20 days of reserve from November 1 instead of five before the crisis. On the same day, natural gas importers, namely DEPA, Mytilineos, Prometheus Gas, Elpedison, PPC and Hron, had to install reserves with a total capacity of 1.14 TWh in Italian warehouses, volumes that can flow back to a Greek tap. system. As part of the relevant preventive measures, Minister Kostas Skrekas signed a memorandum of understanding with his Italian counterpart. At the same time, power generators that have natural gas units without alternative fuel capability will have to install safety margins in the new FSU, which has been installed since July at Revituz. Brown coal will contribute to the country’s energy supply by doubling its production from 10% to 20%. This goal will depend on how soon two private mines, Ahladas and Vevis, reopen.

However, it is widely believed among the competent authorities and in the energy market that, without Russian natural gas, the electricity system is unlikely to be kept in working order without disconnecting the load, both in industry and in the household. This is indicated by the description in “K” of the factor responsible for the situation that will take place: “Every day we will worry whether the ship will arrive in Revitusa, whether it will be windy or sunny, in order to have production from renewable energy, where where is the level of hydroelectric power plants, if some unit breaks down and goes out of order … Everything should work around the clock and the winter should not be severe to say that we will not even have to switch to an alternating power outage for household consumers, ”he emphasizes.

Cutbacks in the industry were not taken into account, as evidenced by the intervention of the competent minister Kostas Skrekas in three businessmen Mytilinaios (Greek aluminium), Stasinopoulos (Viochalko), Papaleksopoulos (Titan) to draw up plans to limit the consumption of natural gas and electricity.

Initially, the ministry will seek voluntary demand reductions from businesses and households. However, in the event of an emergency, this measure will become mandatory for businesses, and since households cannot control enforcement, the necessary reduction to avoid blackouts will be achieved through a program of rotating holidays, the duration and volume of which will be determined by order from ADMIE and DEDDIE in data dependencies.

How Revitoussa will be used in the event of a crisis, primarily to ensure gas sufficiency in the country, is also an issue of concern to the relevant authorities and is addressed in the RAE preventive action plan. The lack of Russian gas on the market will make LNG supplies expensive and difficult to obtain, which is why companies are now closing positions in Revitus to export gas to Bulgaria and Romania. Since the European regulatory framework does not allow barriers to export, the RAE found a patent that indirectly leads to the same result. It has adopted a preventive action plan, according to which, during the level 2 and 3 gas crisis, users who have reserved a time slot in Revitussa keep their place, but the use time of the storage time is reduced from 13 to six days, so that the gas enters the domestic market.