Remember Mr Trump’s trade wars? In fact, many of the tariffs imposed by Donald Trump are still in place today—not so much because Joe Biden thinks they are justified, I suspect, but because it gives Republicans a reason to accuse his administration of being soft on China. doesn’t seem like a good idea. However, trade issues are currently overshadowed by everything from inflation to the war in Ukraine. But without much notice, some of the things Trump wanted to do but failed, like bringing manufacturing back to the US, could be done by his successor.

A recent analysis by Bloomberg shows an increasing trend in the return of production or business processes or their transfer to a neighboring country. All this points to production plans in the US (or possibly neighboring countries) and not in Asia. There are also a number of reports with conflicting evidence that companies are indeed building new manufacturing facilities in the US as well as other high-income countries. Thus, we can see some early signs of a partial weakening of globalization. It’s not necessarily good, but that’s another matter. Now let’s discuss why this might be so. The first thing you need to know is that if we see any downturn in global trade in the coming years, it won’t be the first time. We may understand that the world is getting smaller or that international interdependence is an inevitable trend. But history says otherwise. From the beginning of World War I to the end of World War II, there was a significant decline in trade.

Recovery took a long time: in 1980, trade was more in relation to the world economy than at the end of the Edwardian era. What followed later was indeed a sudden increase in trade, which was called “hyperglobalization”. In fact, hyperglobalization peaked in 2008. International trade as a share of the world economy has remained more or less stable for 14 years. There are 3 reasons to believe that globalization will decrease in the coming years. The first concerns the advent of robots, by which I mean the use of technology to replace the workforce in general. A second, less compelling reason for the decline of globalization is the growing awareness that the world is dangerous. Finally, we must admit that now that America is doing something about climate change, some of its policies will be, at least to a small extent, protectionist measures.