HOUR European Union ready to complete its storage tasks natural gasbut analysts warn that the “key” to winter energy security is whether countries can reduce consumption enough to make do with accumulated reserves during the colder months.

After the fight for the gas storage in the summer in its shade Russian invasion of UkraineEurope’s gas storage facilities are currently 79.94% full, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe, meaning they could surpass their target of 80% gas storage by November.

In a normal year, this could cover Europe’s winter demand. But in 2022, Russian flows have already declined significantly – the volume of natural gas passing through Nord Stream 1, the main gas pipeline to Europe, is only 20% of the capacity, and therefore storage will not meet the needs of the Old Continent.

According to Aurora Energy Research, full gas storage could provide European countries with at best about three months. In Germany, where almost a quarter of the EU’s storage facilities are located, gas reserves will last for 80-90 days of average demand. “To deal with this crisis, demand reduction will be even more important than storage,” Simone Tagliapietra, a senior fellow at the Bruegel think tank, told Reuters.

About 888 terawatt-hours (TWh) of natural gas are currently in storage in EU countries. they have already exceeded the 858 TWh that their reserves reached before last winter. However, if countries fail to reduce fuel consumption, Europe’s natural gas reservoirs will be empty by March, according to the ICIS news agency, even in a scenario where some Russian gas arrives in the winter and the weather worsens. not be unusually cold. To avoid a supply crisis in the winter, countries must reduce natural gas consumption by 15% each month. This would leave the storage 45% full if Russia continued to supply natural gas, and 26% full if Russia cut off supplies from October.

The combination of phasing out Russian gas and non-aggressive reductions in industrial and construction gas use “could lead to energy bills” this winter, said Mauro Chavez Rodriguez, director of European gas research at Wood Mackenzie.

However, there has not yet been a widespread reduction in gas demand, despite the fact that high gas prices have forced many industries to reduce production, a phenomenon now affecting two-thirds of European fertilizer production capacity.