The Italian-French joint venture (50/50) Eni-TotalEnergies with operator Eni announced on August 21 the discovery of the Cronos-1 well in a limestone formation with excellent permeability of an important natural gas field in the south part of quarter 6 of the Cyprus EEZ. The event adds value to the Eastern Mediterranean’s lean-cow potential for the EU, which is trying to build up gas reserves ahead of a tough winter ahead. Efforts are hampered by a Russian-style exercise that has significantly curtailed natural gas supplies, citing routine and emergency maintenance on the Nord Stream I gas pipeline. Potok II gas pipeline, which, apparently, has no technical problems.

For Eni, successful exploration drilling of Cronos-1 (~70 Bcm) The consortium urgently plans to drill a new adjacent exploration well, Zeus-1, to delineate the field.

If it turns out to be successful, then the southern part of block 6 will collect the potential of about 350-400 billion cubic meters. in the Egyptian EEZ. This discount would perhaps justify the euphoric tone of the prestigious Italian newspaper La República, reflecting the expectation of Italy’s “thirsty” energy-hungry and cash-strapped independence from Russia’s energy vice. The first thought is that adding new ones (Gafkos, Calypso, Kronos, Zeus) to old ones (~ 510 bcm), for example. Venus gas discoveries (2010) exceed EastMed’s economic viability threshold (proven ~300-350 bcm), which is de facto coming back to the fore.

Its positive aspects include:

• Acute shortage of natural gas in the EU. leading to high prices, inflation and in the background possible stagflation with rising unemployment in the 27 EU countries. Any EU supply of natural gas from the Eastern Mediterranean via EastMed would be more than welcome and comforting.

• The exponential rise in natural gas prices is making the Eastern Mediterranean payback faster and safer, making it cost-effective and ultimately feasible, especially for transporting larger volumes than originally planned to sufficiently offset Russian gas shortages and achieve economies of scale.

Accordingly, its disadvantages are highlighted:

• The European Green Transition Strategy has been frequently revised following emergencies undertaken by the EU. failed to predict. In addition, E.E. grossly violated the doctrine of security of energy supply, for narrow economic reasons in Germany. Privileged energy dependence on Russia backfired on the instrumentalization of energy after the invasion of Ukraine.

As discoveries in the EEZ of the Republic of Cyprus increase, Turkish pressure will intensify.

• Serious energy shortage in the EU. coupled with high costs require fast and flexible solutions that minimize the time between discovery and exploitation. Natural gas as a transitional fuel theoretically has a limited lifetime. However, the harsh reality shows that the time will be extended as long as necessary for the green transition to take place with energy efficiency and safety. This is why big oil and gas companies are now investing in very expensive subsea drilling. In this sense, long-term and imminent projects such as EastMed are objectively viewed with skepticism, without taking into account the elephant in the room, that is, Turkish objections, which led to arbitrary and non-existent, according to international law, unilateral action.

• Finally, there is already a plan to transport Israeli and Cypriot gas to an LNG station in Egypt, from where it will be transported by sea to consumer markets for ships owned by Greece and Cyprus. The FSRU unit can be installed at the Vassiliko site in southern Cyprus in parallel to supply the “shallow” (commercially small) market of Cyprus with the remaining volumes being exported.

As successful discoveries accumulate in the EEZ of the Republic of Cyprus, Turkish pressure and illegal activities will intensify. Complacency and the transcendental practice that the problem will one day resolve itself can lead to painful situations in the future.

The Republic of Cyprus, perhaps 12 years ago, since the discovery of the Aphrodite field, could have taken care of protecting the interests and the Turkish Cypriot component of the one and only Cyprus, taking the initiative to create a special escrow. an account in Zurich or Geneva, under the supervision and guarantee of the UN, where the share of the Turkish Cypriot community (not, of course, the non-existent Turkish Cypriot “state”) would be credited from the net income from the exploitation of hydrocarbons in the entire Cyprus EEZ.

The 18% share, reflecting the proportion of the Turkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot population before the invasion and occupation, is likely to be a fair starting point, supplemented by reasonable differential population growth since then, but not including settlers. The account will be activated for payments after the reunification of the island and the resolution of the problem based on the decisions and resolutions of the UN Security Council within the framework of a bicommunal federation.

Cyprus would then only need to improve its international image by disarming the Turkish argument about the mandatory “protection” of Turkish Cypriots.

• Mr. ML Miriantis – Energy Analyst, Ph.D.