Fitch Ratings estimates that Greece is more resilient than other major eurozone countries to a complete shutdown of Russian natural gas supplies.

As a new report warns, European Union countries have made significant progress in reducing their dependence on Russian natural gas, but remain highly vulnerable to a scenario in which Russia would have to completely cut off supplies.

In more detail, as the House of Representatives reports, European countries are trying to quickly reduce their dependence on natural gas imports from Russia in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and recent supply disruptions through Nord Stream 1 highlight concerns that Moscow could use natural gas exports to as a political tool. tool.

However, continued disruptions to gas imports from Russia will hamper the ability of European countries to meet their gas needs during the winter season, despite efforts to build reserves and reduce dependency, Fitch said.

In addition, this year’s heat wave is putting additional pressure on European energy markets as non-gas power generation declines. Already, Fitch estimates that supply and infrastructure constraints mean it could take more than three years to make up for the full loss of supply from Russia.

Fitch notes that Greece and Finland have a wider energy balance and access to alternative sources.

According to the House of Representatives, Austria, Germany and Italy are the most vulnerable countries to interruptions in natural gas supplies from Russia.

This is because Austria and Germany lack viable short-term alternative energy sources, while Italy has more short-term alternative gas supply options but has one of the highest shares of natural gas in its energy mix among EU countries. Greece and Finland are also vulnerable but more resilient due to a wider energy mix and access to alternative sources.

In general, the countries of Western Europe are less dependent on Russian gas than the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, while the direct impact on most of them is low to moderate. However, there is a large divergence in Western Europe, and the region as a whole will face a major macroeconomic challenge if supplies from Russia are cut off.

At the same time, Fitch warns that a possible deterioration in the macroeconomic outlook and high inflation will put additional pressure on public finances. This, in turn, could put pressure on sovereign ratings, especially where credit metrics are weak relative to other countries in the region.