Harsh winters had previously helped Moscow defeat Napoleon and Hitler. So today Mr. Vladimir Putin is betting on rising energy prices, as well as a possible shortage this winter, to convince Europe make her Ukraine to accept a truce – and even on Russia’s terms.

According to two Russian sources close to the Kremlin, this is the only path to peace that Moscow sees, while Kyiv says it will not agree to negotiations until all Russian forces leave Ukraine.

Moscow sees “cracks” in European unity

“We have time, we can wait,” said one of the sources, who declined to be named because he is not authorized to speak to the media.

“It will be a difficult winter for the Europeans. We predict protests and riots. “Some European leaders may think twice before continuing to support Ukraine and think it’s time for a deal.”

A second source said that “cracks” in European unity are already visible in Moscow, and this phenomenon is expected to worsen due to the difficulties of the winter season.

“It will be very difficult if the war continues in autumn and winter. So there is hope that they will call for peace,” the source said.

The Kremlin has received no immediate response, which denies that Russia is using energy as a political weapon.

Ukraine and its staunchest supporters in the West say they have no plans to change their stance, while U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said they see no sign of a withdrawal of support for Kyiv yet.

Commission Chair Ursula von der Leyen wrote in her post on Ukraine’s Independence Day: “EU. he was on your side in this battle from the very beginning. And we’ll be by your side for as long as it takes.”

Kyiv believes it has the ability to make a difference on the battlefield thanks to the significant military assistance it has received from both the United States and other Western countries. In addition, an important role was played by a series of strikes on high-ranking objects of the Russian side, which raised the morale of the Ukrainians.

“In order for negotiations with Russia to become possible, it is necessary to change the status quo at the front in favor of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” Zelensky’s adviser Mikhail Podolyak said. “The Russian army must suffer significant defeats,” he added.

“Test of Will”

It is noted that in the face of a jump in energy prices due to the war, European governments are trying to increase the resilience of their countries to this pressure in the coming winter, but there are few experts who believe that all the needs of the EU country.

The Kremlin attributes the reduction in gas flows to technical problems, as well as to Western sanctions and the refusal of some countries to pay in rubles. At the same time, record oil and natural gas revenues continue to add to Russia’s arsenal.

“The Kremlin is, of course, betting on the possibility that we will lose interest in the situation due to the midterm elections in America, the process of electing a new prime minister in the UK and Germany’s unbearable concerns about natural gas. said retired US General Ben Hodges, former commander of the US Army in Europe, among others;

“War is a test not only of logistics, but also of will. This test is whether the will of the West is stronger than that of the Kremlin. I think that will be a problem,” he added.

The first source close to the Russian authorities told Reuters that Moscow in any potential peace deal in the future wants to “fix” territorial acquisitions, secure all of Donbass, and maintain Kyiv’s military neutrality.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Tuesday that Kyiv would not accept any proposal to “freeze” the front line in order to “calm down” Moscow.

Podolyak, for his part, said the West was providing Kyiv with enough weapons to “not fall” but not enough to win, adding that much more support was needed. Western countries have refused to take a more direct part in the war to avoid a wider conflict with Russia, which has the world’s largest arsenal of nuclear weapons.

^{Source: Reuters.}