Prices per kilowatt-hour, announced by providers for consumption in September, have jumped to levels that cause incessant bleeding in the state budget. Finance Minister Christos Staikouras has estimated that total government assistance to households and businesses will approach 2 billion euros to cover most of the electricity subsidies in September from 1.136 billion euros in August. “It is estimated that in September we will approach 2 billion euros,” said Mr. Staikouras, referring to statements that the competent minister Kostas Skrekas will make this morning.

The total income of the Energy Transition Fund for the month of September does not exceed 1 billion euros, of which 700 million euros from the wholesale market and auctions and 300 million euros from the ICO account, which will be paid in two equal installments. – one at the end of August and one in mid-September. This means that about 1 billion euros remains to be opened, which must be covered from the state budget. An amount of about 150 million euros will be allocated directly from budgetary reserves, and the competent services of the Ministry of Finance are already working in this direction, and any amount that is determined from there will be allocated through amendments to the budget and legislation.

In relation to August, the tariffs announced shortly before midnight last Saturday by providers have been increased in some cases even by more than 60%.

With the exception of ongoing discounts offered by some providers, the lowest price per kilowatt-hour in September is 67.9 cents, compared to 48.6 cents in August from PPC, whose September fee starts at 78.8 cents for the first 500 kilowatts. hours and from 80 minutes to over 500 kilowatt-hours. At August prices, the subsidy reached 33.7 cents per kilowatt-hour and kept the final consumer charge at 15-17 minutes. For a consumer to pay the same price in September, the subsidy must average over 50 cents. However, from yesterday’s statements by Mr. Staikoura, it appears that the government intends to cover these increased costs.

Now it is not only the government that worries, but also the market, where there will be funds for the coming months.

What worries now not only the government, but also the subsidized market, is where the funds will be found for the coming months, as events have debunked all the working assumptions on which the subsidy system was built.

Absorption calculations of 80-90% of the increases adopted by the government were made with European TTF natural gas prices of 100 and 150 euros per MWh and an average wholesale electricity price of 300-350 euros per MWh. megawatt hour.

The price of natural gas, after a consecutive five-week rally, approached EUR 300/MWh yesterday, while the wholesale electricity price in Greece broke a new record yesterday at EUR 549/MWh, jumping to EUR 616.38/MWh today. hour, making the Greek market – along with Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary – the most expensive in Europe after Italy (655 euros) and Germany (620 euros). An even more nightmarish picture for tomorrow, Wednesday, when futures contracts in France close at 755 euros per MWh, in Germany at 623 euros, and in Italy at 655 euros.

Another important assumption government officials took into account when developing the subsidy model was that PPC would act as a breakwater in the retail market to keep prices low, a role the company responded to in August by offering the lowest market price. price, but not September. A jump in the wholesale price in the second decade of August and the dynamics of natural gas prices forced the company to offer prices that cover both future risks and losses in August. However, the company’s customer arrears, according to data leaked by the company itself, have dropped to 20% this year from 23.1% in June 2021.

If there is no de-escalation of prices, it is estimated that more than 2.5-3 billion euros will be required from the state budget to cover the cost of subsidies in the last three months of the year for electricity and natural gas, and from mid-October household consumption for heating returns.