Not only Europe wants to get rid of trade with it Russia. The opposite is also true, especially in the energy sector. Gazprom’s options for exporting its reserves are at the forefront as they will determine whether and when Putin cuts off flows to Europe altogether. Or maybe not;

“Let’s assume that energy exports to the West continue to decline for the foreseeable future. Therefore, it is important to consolidate the trend of recent years: to gradually reorient our exports to the fast-growing markets of the South and East. To do this, we need to identify key infrastructure facilities and immediately begin their construction.” This is Vladimir Putin at a meeting with his apparatus 3 months ago.

Russia has made no secret of its plan to divert exports, which it had already devised prior to its invasion of Ukraine, to some extent anticipating a backlash in Europe following this development. “The Kremlin is conducting a ‘pivot to the east’ (according to Putin). This is a deliberate attempt to circumvent the cumulative effect of the sanctions imposed in the first phase after the illegal annexation of Crimea. European and American sanctions have achieved a lot. They have limited access to European and American technology, as well as specialized knowledge, including technical services in the oil and gas sector. In addition, they have reduced funding options and reduced market share as the Europeans, in particular, are desperate to reduce their dependence on Russian gas. Looking east is thus a strategic choice on Russia’s part: looking to China and other countries such as India to fill gaps in export markets and restore access to funding and specialist support. Russia cannot afford not to develop its oil and gas resources, which are the basis of its economic well-being.”Klaus Dods, professor of geography and geopolitics at the Royal Holloway University of London, emphasizes the “K”.

But the question is how quickly Russia will be able to enter other major markets. “The transition to the Chinese and Indian markets is not easy. Moving supply chains from West to East takes time and cannot necessarily replace the size and value of the European market. The Russia-Asia pipeline network is much less dense.”.

After 2025, this answer is given to “K” by sources in an international organization specializing in the natural gas market: “What Russia is doing now requires investment plans and infrastructure development that can practically be implemented in the second half of this decade.” Is that why Russia cannot afford to stop the flows to Europe immediately? “That’s really true from an economic point of view, always speaking on a short-term basis. However, she may take such a decision for purely geopolitical reasons, seeking to put pressure on the West and take a better position in the negotiations on the Ukrainian front.”. In addition, due to the periodic surge in European demand and, of course, rising prices, Russia has managed to create a significant revenue reserve this year. “According to our estimates, in the first half of 2022, Gazprom’s revenue from gas exports to Europe more than tripled compared to the first half of 2021.”.

Like melting ice… favors Russia

Central to Moscow’s plans is a corridor across the North Sea. That is why Russia has invested in military infrastructure and also in icebreakers. “We have the most powerful icebreaking fleet in the world and it will remain so. The North Sea will be the key to the development of the Russian Arctic and Far East,” Putin said in a 2018 speech to the Russian parliament.

“Putin has ambitious plans to turn the Northern Corridor into one of the main shipping options with the goal of transporting 80 million tons by 2025. At present, the working volume is about 30 million tons. Russia hopes the northern corridor will become more popular as sea ice steadily retreats, making the sea accessible all year round. Although it is unlikely to compete with the Suez Canal trade route in terms of commercial traffic, Russia is betting that the reduction in shipping time and therefore cost will attract more and more players. After all, it collects fees from those who use the route, providing additional revenue streams.”Professor Dodds “K” explains.

Remarkably, due to global warming caused by climate change, Arctic sea ice is about half today compared to previous decades. It is estimated that by 2035 the entire Arctic Ocean will be free of ice.

One thing is certain. The more Europe becomes energy independent, the more Putin looks to other markets. And the sooner she does this, the more difficult it will be for Europe, which is in a hurry to race against the times, to wean itself from Russian mineral wealth. A road race in a time of ruthless warfare and strong interdependence.