Most of its members Greek Economists Group did not dare to make a forecast as to whether our country could enter a protracted period of stagflation in the coming months.

While there is debate at the international level about the threat of stagflation – the unorthodox coexistence of recession and high unemployment on the one hand, and high inflation on the other hand, lately it has been gaining particular intensity; in Greece, it still seems that inflation is not accompanied by the other two components of this dangerous mixture. On the contrary, according to ELSTATUnemployment in Greece in May was 12.5% ​​compared to 15.6% in the corresponding month of 2021, and growth forecasts (a fairly moderate commission says 4% in 2022) take our country above average Eurozone.

On the other hand, these relatively optimistic forecasts are, of course, subject to the volatility of international events. The duration and outcome of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the energy and food crisis, and any further deterioration in Greek-Turkish relations, as well as on the pandemic front, will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the country’s economic performance. .

A total of 26 Greek economists responded to the Panel’s July question. Of these, 27% consider it unlikely that inflation will stagnate in our country for a long time in the coming months, compared with 31% who consider it possible. An impressive 42% of respondents placed themselves between the two options. In their comments, which you can read on the KEFIM website, the members of the Hellenic Economists Group highlight precisely the uncertainty that characterizes today’s international environment. As already noted, it goes without saying that interest rates will rise in Greece and internationally, as will the positive course of tourism, investment and government revenue this year in the country. On the contrary, a greater or lesser degree of uncertainty characterizes the degree of energy dependence of Greece, despite the fact that it turns out to be less than that of other European countries, the prospects for the restoration of grain supply chains from Ukraine, as well as the development of the situation in a pandemic. .

In the presence of so many and such important parameters, any prediction, even relatively near future, becomes extremely unreliable.

* Mr. Giorgos Archondas is a member of the Scientific Council of KEFiM and the head of the Hellenic Group of Economists.

The Greek Economists Group is a KEFIM initiative that aims to record and report on the views of leading Greek economists on key economic policy issues. The Group consists of 75 economists from 59 universities and institutes located in 11 countries. A detailed list of participants, their answers to monthly questions and explanatory comments, as well as answers to frequently asked questions about the Panel can be found on the KEFIM website kefim.org.