In the competition for all-electric, even if European manufacturers seem to be good students today, about 6,500 km from here, in China, the leadership in this field seems even more comfortable, and we have already seen it with the Chinese setting up manufacturers in Europe.

China is currently the largest auto market in the world, and manufacturers see the energy transition as a great way to take the reins of the industry into the hands of Europeans and Americans. But Western manufacturers also intend to succeed, especially in China, where local brands have regained power in recent years.

China too far or Europe too late?

Even if they succeed in the shadow of the Great Wall, big groups like General Motors, Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes may fall behind in electrification and lose ground to local manufacturers.

A Greenpeace report published by the South China Morning Post sounds the alarm: a giant like Volkswagen, for example, risks losing 3 to 7% of its market share in China by 2030. GM, meanwhile, will be in the 3-6% range, while Honda will be between 2-4%. Toyota will finally see its share of the pie shrink by 1-3%.

“Toyota, Volkswagen and other manufacturers that have been slower to bring their EVs to market risk losing significant market share, even by the most optimistic estimates.”– says activist Bao Hang.

Delay impossible to catch up?

On the other hand, there is the Chinese manufacturer BYD, which by the end of the decade will gain 4-5% more market share compared to today. We will remind, only in 2022 the Chinese company sold 1.8 million electric and hybrid cars, thus ending up right behind Tesla.

Another number to keep in mind is Chinese registrations in the first quarter of 2023. Out of 100 new cars sold in China, 31 were fully electric : This is a 3% increase compared to the same period in 2022 and more than double compared to the January-March 2021 period. 80% of these electric cars sold were from Chinese manufacturers.

Apart from national champions like BYD, several other local brands are making their mark. Among them are Chagan and Xpeng, as well as GAC, Geely, NIO and SAIC. Their secrets? Lower prices thanks to lower production costs, all with advanced technology.

If it really wants to stay in the race, a Western EV will have to find a way to compete on these two fronts. So far, however cool, European manufacturers are lagging behind in China compared to local ones.