The figures are taken from a PwC study. And such a forecast would turn the Old Continent into a major importer of cars. According to PwC, the changes will come as Chinese brands increase their market share and European brands make more electric cars in China.

European brands that produce in China for the European market

Of the 800,000 potential cars made in China, about 330,000 will come from Western manufacturers such as Tesla, BMW and Groupe Renault, which currently export electric cars to Europe from China, including the Tesla Model 3, BMW iX3 and Dacia Spring.

Felix Kuhnert, partner and head of automotive at PwC Germany, said European automakers continue to face supply chain challenges and are focusing on building more expensive (and lower volume) EVs in Europe. “Chinese automakers, on the other hand, have optimized and developed their products domestically, so they are now bringing affordable BEV models, innovative technologies and never-before-seen concepts to Europe,” Kunert said in a statement. PwC and other analysts say previous attempts by Chinese brands to enter the European market have largely failed, but China’s expertise in all-electric cars could be a competitive advantage this time around.

“Chinese automakers are now seeking to consolidate their presence in Europe,” PwC said. “Compared to their previous entry into the market over the last decade, the playing field is now much more level. PwC expects Chinese brands to occupy 3.8-7.9% of the electric vehicle market in Europe.

Brand perception is key

“A lot depends on how the brands are perceived,” PwC said, adding that “Chinese brands are still relatively unknown in Europe and have a long way to go to build a strong reputation for electric vehicles, especially for top-end models.

In another recent report, electrification analyst Matthias Schmidt said that around 200,000 Chinese-branded cars are expected to be sold in Europe this year, including around 90,000 fully electric, 40,000 plug-in hybrids and the rest with conventional powertrains. aggregates

Meanwhile, Western brands will export around 100,000 fully electric vehicles to Europe from their Chinese production sites, Schmidt said in September.

According to Schmidt, the main Chinese EV manufacturers in the first seven months of this year are SAIC’s MG and Geely’s Polestar. Other brands such as Nio and XPeng have struggled to establish themselves so far. In Western Europe, Chinese brands accounted for 5.2% of the EV market in the first half of this year, up from 3.8% in the first half of 2021.

Big volumes are expected next year from Smart, the Geely-Mercedes-Benz joint venture that will build next-generation electric cars in China rather than Europe.