One night in 2024, when 95% of Romania’s population is at home, a Vranci-type earthquake occurs that happens every 1,000 years (like in 1977), a scenario the authorities have taken into account.

According to this scenario, the earthquake itself, as well as other major geological disasters related to it, such as landslides, rockfalls or dam failures, can directly cause large human losses, destruction of infrastructure (roads, railways, tunnels, railways, bridges, water , oil). , gas pipelines and communications, etc.), buildings and vehicles, as well as fires or explosions.

An earthquake can damage or even destroy industrial facilities and/or business centers.

Direct costs include the loss of physical and human capital, support costs, and costs associated with cleanup, rehabilitation, reconstruction, replacement, reconstruction, repair, or maintenance operations.

Indirect costs are caused by secondary effects such as lost production and investment. Macroeconomic imbalances caused by disasters often lead to debt and/or poverty. Indirect costs include all other costs incurred indirectly as a result of the disaster. They include:

• decrease in the value of real estate in areas threatened by natural disasters;

• loss of tax revenue corresponding to depreciated property as a result of the disaster;

• loss of industrial, agricultural and forestry productivity, as well as income from tourism as a result of damage to land or facilities or disruption of transport systems;

• loss of productivity of people or domestic animals due to death, injury or psychological trauma;

• costs of mitigation measures related to potential disasters, such as landslides and floods;

• the consequences of the redirection of public spending on aid financing

How much it will cost human lives, material and interventions

The authorities have calculated how much human lives will cost, namely 2.07 billion euros.

As for material damages, they will amount to 6.72 billion euros, and intervention costs – 2.96 billion euros.

The indirect impact also concerns the loss of revenues to the budget, which is estimated at 2.64 billion euros, which is considered very small.

*These calculations refer to the consolidated earthquake risk assessment report – UTCB, URBAN, INCERC and INFP and the consolidated report on the economic impact of the 10 types of risks analyzed in the project – IPE.

Why earthquake and landslide risk maps are not developed in 2023 / Will happen in 2024-2027

Romania has a Program for the development of natural maps of the risks of earthquakes and landslides.

According to the Fiscal-Budget Strategy, the program has a multi-year nature in accordance with Law 45/2022.

“The transformation into a multi-year program supports county councils both in the process of initiating procedures for the acquisition of expert services for the development of documentation – by providing commitment credits, and in completing the documentation – by providing the necessary budget,” the document says.

According to the authorities, the methodological rules for the implementation of the Program are at the stage of approval, therefore, no financial contracts were concluded in 2023.

In 2024-2027, funding for documentation on the development of earthquake and landslide risk maps should take place.

“It is necessary to establish preventive measures that will contribute to the preparation of local self-government bodies for phenomena caused by natural disasters and to reduce their consequences,” the document states.

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