International markets barely had time to calm down after more than a year and a half of war in Ukraine. Now, with the beginning of the conflict in the Middle East, economists are again building gloomy scenarios regarding the development of oil prices and the risk of a global recession. There is talk of quoting $150 per barrel of crude oil in the event of an outright war between Israel and Iran.

The TTF index on the Amsterdam Gas Exchange has had a downward trend in recent months. On October 5, on the eve of the attack in the Gaza Strip, it reached 36 dollars per MWh, the lowest level since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. In just one week, the quote rose again to $48.

In addition, the American company Chevron stopped production at a huge offshore gas field located in the Eastern Mediterranean at the request of the state of Israel for security reasons.

In addition to the war, other topics affect the price of gas.

A major pipeline supplying gas from the Baltic Sea between Finland and Estonia was damaged, putting further pressure on gas supplies in the European gas market.

In addition, these days Bulgaria also came up with an additional tax on the transit of Russian gas to Hungary. Hungarian officials said they were upset, but said they were not giving up Russian gas and would respond in one way or another.

A war in the Middle East could lead to a global recession

Fears are growing in the financial world that a war in the Middle East could trigger a global recession.

In the event of a direct conflict between Israel and Iran, according to estimates by Bloomberg Economics, the price of oil could rise to $150 per barrel, which would cause the world economy to fall by 1.7%, reducing world production by $1 trillion.

These days, the price of a barrel of Brent, the mainstay of the European market, once again exceeded 90 dollars per barrel, rising to 91.31 dollars per barrel today.

Should Europe worry about gas supplies in winter?

In the short term, the news is better in the region. Europe’s gas reservoirs are more than 97% full, and the Copernicus Climate Change Service estimates there is a high chance of a very mild winter, reducing demand for heating fuel.

Romania is also fully stocked at 100.95%, and the authorities are relaxed about ensuring supply.

However, price pressure is expected from the world market and the vulnerability of Europe’s pipeline infrastructure. For example, it is suspected that the problems with the gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea could have been caused by sabotage.