Diesel prices rose on the Asian market on Friday after Russia announced a surprise export embargo, even though some analysts expect the restriction will not remain in place for too long, Bloomberg reported, citing Agerpres.

The ban, which took effect on Thursday, will add to already-existing tensions in the global fuel market, where demand is expected to rise in the winter months when many refineries lack the means to increase output.

In the Asian market, the problems are complicated by the return of air transport to China, which will lead to an increase in demand for aviation fuel. Diesel fuel is a staple of the global economy, used by trucks, ships and trains, and year-to-date Russia is the world’s largest supplier of diesel fuel, according to data from Vortexa Ltd.

“A lot will depend on how long Russia maintains the embargo on fuel exports,” said Vivek Dhar, an analyst at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, noting that there are some short-term exceptions.

Refiners in China and India began exporting more diesel to international customers as the two countries bought record volumes of Russian oil as well as Iranian crude.

In addition, Asia is not the main buyer of diesel and gasoline from Russia, so it will not be the most affected by the ban imposed by Moscow.

Russia has banned diesel exports due to concerns about the grain harvest

On Friday, the difference between the price of diesel and crude oil, which is an indicator of the profit received by oil refiners from the production of diesel, increased by 2.7% to $30 a barrel. This is a lower price than the peak of $34 recorded in August.

Although Russia did not provide a time horizon for the embargo on diesel exports, as well as gasoline exports, analysts expect the restrictions to be short-lived.

“After covering domestic supplies, Russia will have to resume exports due to a lack of warehouse space,” says the FGE consulting firm.

The export of Russian diesel should resume no later than two weeks, the consultant claims. Analysts at JP Morgan Chase & Co. predict a similar time horizon, according to which the Russian embargo will last only “a few weeks, until the end of the harvest in October.”

Russia imposed a ban on fuel exports after Russian Agriculture Minister Dmytro Patrushev warned on September 14 that fuel shortages could disrupt the autumn grain harvest and called for a halt to oil exports.

Russia, one of the world’s biggest oil producers, is facing fuel shortages in some parts of the country, including the southern part of the country’s “breadbasket”, and market sources warned before the export restrictions were imposed that the situation could worsen unless action was taken.

PHOTO article: Oleksandr Blinov / Dreamstime.com.