He landed on 2.1%o growth rate first quarter, according to yesterday’s data ELSTAT, and economists are talking about a picture of a slowdown, but so far do not change forecasts for the whole year. Forecasts that fluctuate between 2% and 3%.

After a growth rate of around 6% in 2022 (4.8% in Q4 2022), a decline was expected as the comparison is made from a high base. However, some analysts note that the fall was slightly larger than expected. The government forecast in the Stability Program about 1.5 months ago a growth rate of 2.3% for the full year, but its officials recently indicated they expect a higher rate, closer to 3%. The OECD said yesterday in its Economic Outlook that GDP will grow by 2.2% this year before falling to 1.9% in 2024. Greece with 2.1% is well above the EU average. and the Eurozone, which was 1.3%, according to preliminary data from Eurostat (final data expected today). Higher rates were recorded in Spain (3.8%), Ireland (2.6%) and Portugal (2.5%).

Moreover, on a quarterly basis, Greece’s GDP recorded a 0.1% decline in the first quarter for the first time since the second quarter of 2020, the year of the pandemic, while the eurozone saw a 0.1% increase, although two countries, Ireland and Austria, according to preliminary data, had a negative sign. ELSTAT data show that the main negative driver of GDP change in the first quarter compared to the same period of the previous year was gross capital formation, which fell by 0.7% for the first time after impressive and inexplicable growth in previous quarters. Behind this development are reserves, a measure that captures, among other things, differences between GDP calculations in terms of income and expenditure.

For the whole year, according to the estimates of the Stability Program and international organizations, GDP growth will be from 2% to 3%.

Investment reflected in gross fixed capital formation increased by 8.2%. Consumer spending remained strong, rising by 2.3% (household spending by 2.9%). Net exports contributed positively as exports increased by 8.9% and imports by 5.6% and declined qoq.

“Private consumption continued to rise quarterly, albeit at already high levels, which must be attributed to the negative savings rate,” said Thasos Anastasatos, chief economist at Eurobank, in a related note. “Given that the retail volume index contracted in the first quarter of 2023, as well as slowing imports, the increase in consumption appears to have been due to domestically produced services, i.e. in focus, towards which there has probably been a shift in relation to goods. There is also a slowdown in real estate investment.”

He adds that in terms of the manufacturing approach, the concentrated industries that recorded the highest growth in real gross value added were: 1. Arts, entertainment and entertainment, home improvement repair and other services (12% year on year). year). 2. Construction (19.9% ​​year on year) and 3. Professional, scientific and technical activities (17.2% year on year). The Eurobank keeps its 2% growth forecast for this year unchanged.

Growth of 2.1% is consistent with the expectations of the National Bank, indicating an annual growth rate of 2.5% -3%, the bank’s chief economist Nikos Magginas also notes in his note. He notes that the QoQ slowdown reflects the extremely high contribution of inventories in the previous quarter, and the year-on-year result of a high base in the first quarter of 2023 due to the lifting of restrictive measures against COVID. -19 at the time.