In December 2015, the leaders of 196 countries signed the 21st^her session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 21) The Paris Agreement, by agreeing to take action to limit global mean temperature increase to no more than +2°C above pre-industrial levels, ideally looking forward to +1.5°C. The agreement was seen as a milestone in climate diplomacy that strengthens global cooperation to address this issue. changing of the climate and take collective action.

But what are the progresses more than 7 years after the signing of the agreement?

If commitments to “climate neutrality” are collectively met, then we can hope to contain global warming. In other words, it is possible to limit the rise in global mean temperature to a maximum of +2°C above pre-industrial levels. In fact, with commitments already made public, growth through 2100 is estimated to stabilize at 1.7–1.8°C. A sufficient and necessary condition for this is that the obligations of the states should not remain in words, but that their implementation should proceed at a very high speed. But in most countries, these obligations are still up in the air.

Here are some of the highlights of our news study at the National Technical University of Athens, together with researchers from the Spanish Basque Center for Climate Change (BC3), the Swiss Federal Polytechnic School of Lausanne (EPFL), the Norwegian Center for International Climate Research (CICERO), British Imperial College London and the American Joint Research Institute for Global Change. This study, published a few days ago in the journal Nature, used 4 large integrated economic, energy and climate assessment models to estimate the trajectory of CO emissions.₂ short-term and long-term, based on national goals and declared commitments.

Older Publication about 2 years ago, he estimated that the increase would exceed them 2 °С. This significant variation indicates the progress made towards the global climate goals. Especially before and during the 26th^her The Glasgow Conference at the end of 2021 (COP26) witnessed a significant increase in the ambition of national targets. 120 countries have updated their short-term climate targets to Glasgow, while the world’s strongest economies, accounting for 70% of carbon dioxide emissions, have committed to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions within the next three to five decades.

Another new element of our recent research is the need to separate commitments from the actual policies that have been or will be implemented in order to make commitments a reality. Efforts to date have focused on making climate targets more ambitious. What is required now is not more promises, but the fulfillment of existing obligations.

Just as importantly, ambitious commitments to climate neutrality are not enough unless they are implemented as a matter of priority in this critical decade. Several countries are committed to achieving very ambitious long-term zero-carbon targets but are phasing out after 2030. This is the wrong approach. The battle to contain average temperatures will largely be decided in the coming years until 2030. Short-term goals are paramount. Otherwise, a temperature rise of more than +2°C in the next ten years cannot be avoided. In this negative development, political action to reduce it must be redesigned in a dystopian and completely uncertain environment.

The study also demonstrates serious technological and social problems.

The biggest technological challenge has to do with particularly dubious levels of penetration of new technological marvels (eg green hydrogen, bioenergy with parallel carbon capture and storage), solutions that have not yet been used on a large scale. As their timely availability remains uncertain for the foreseeable future, they should not be part of some “magic” solution in today’s design. Instead, the advancement of mature solutions such as renewable energy and savings, along with related investments in networks and storage systems, must proceed at an unprecedented pace.

The biggest societal challenge is how to fairly share the high costs of needed technology investments while protecting the economically weak. The risk is that a large part of the population, around 20%, even in the strongest economies, will be at risk of energy poverty without being able to follow the transition process. Therefore, the paths to climate neutrality must be not only climatic, but also social. In other words, inclusive ways so that no one is left behind.

Otherwise, they will be difficult, full of risks of increasing inequality, new exclusions and social explosions.

*Haris Doukas, NTUA Professor