Realized prices are expected to be on the path of a moderate slowdown. residences next years. According to Piraeus Bank’s forecast in its related economic course study, growth is expected to be 7.4% in 2023 from 11.1% in 2022. Accordingly, over the next three years (2024, 2025 and 2026), growth will be 6.5%. %, 6% and 5.6%.

If these estimates are confirmed, then, firstly, they will mark the transition of the housing market value into a new era, because. a full recovery will be completed, surpassing the previous high recorded in 2007.. Depending on the rate of purchasing power and inflation, it seems that in the coming years, buying a house will be more expensive (perhaps less than today, but perhaps more) for most households.

The main reason for the rise in prices is, of course, supply and demand imbalance as tens of thousands of homes are stuck between auctions and foreclosures. from banks and debt management companies. At the same time, it is estimated that more than 750,000 homes across the country have been taken off the market by their owners because they are closed and unused. This is a fund that should be given significant incentives (such as the existing Save-Upgrade program) to restore it and gradually bring it back to the real estate market for exploitation, either in the form of a sale or a lease. A significant percentage of closed facilities have significant damagewhich the owners cannot recover.

On the other hand, private construction activity remains at a very low level, despite a significant recovery in the last two years. Especially, 126% more new building permits in 2022 than in 2016as their number was 9,793 out of 4,305. This figure corresponds to approximately 30,000 new apartments, compared to nearly 200,000 that were added to the market in the mid-2000s, when, respectively, more than 40,000 new permits were issued annually and for several years .

Moreover, sale prices for new buildings currently exceed 3,000 euros/sq.m. and amount to about 4000 euros / sq.m. in most parts of Attica. This means that the acquisition of an average apartment for a family of four, i.e. 100 m2, costs about 380,000–400,000 euros, an amount that of course few can afford, even if they resort to bank loans, which today also prohibitively high. The big increase in the price of new homes is due to the rising cost of construction due to the war in Ukraine, as well as an increase in the labor force, as there is a huge demand for workshops and very little supply. Unfortunately, manufacturers pass these costs on to buyers by raising prices to keep their profits. Another factor, of course, is the fact that all newly built facilities must, in accordance with building codes, be highly energy efficient, which also increases costs significantly.

The only positive thing that could have a significant increase in activity in private construction, at least on a theoretical level, would be that it would cover at least part of the demand from people with high financial standing or with significant liquidity, for example. in connection with the sale of other assets. These buyers today are also turning to used buildings in areas where they are interested in buying property in the absence of new construction.