According to a study by Goldman Sachs, recent developments in artificial intelligence could lead to the automation of a quarter of the work done in the US and the Eurozone.

The investment bank said artificial intelligence systems like ChatGPT could spark a productivity boom that would eventually boost annual global gross domestic product by 7% over a 10-year period.

However, it is emphasized that “if the technology lived up to its promises, it would also lead to significant labor market disruption, equivalent to 300 million full-time jobs in major countries.”

Lawyers and administrative staff will be at risk.

Researchers estimate that about two-thirds of jobs in the US and Europe are subject to some degree of AI automation, based on data on tasks that are typically performed in thousands of occupations.

Most people will see less than half of their workload automated and they will likely continue to work at their desks with some of their time freed up for more productive activities.

“Similar impact in the US and Europe”

In the US, estimates refer to 63% of the workforce. Another 30% who work in nature or outdoors will not be affected, although their work may be subject to other forms of automation. Goldman Sachs said its study showed a similar impact in Europe.

Globally, with manual labor accounting for a large share of employment in developing countries, about one-fifth of the work can be done with artificial intelligence – or about 300 million full-time jobs across all major economies.

The report rekindles the debate about the potential of artificial intelligence technologies both to revive declining productivity growth in the wealthy world and to create a new class of workers who face the same fate as factory workers in the 1980s.

The impact estimates made by Goldman Sachs are more conservative than those of some academic studies, which included the impact of a wider range of related technologies.

A paper published last week by OpenAI, the creator of GPT-4, showed that 80% of the US workforce can see at least 10% of their work done by genetic artificial intelligence, based on analysis by human researchers and the big language machine. companies. model (LLM).

Source: Financial Times.