Britons, already experiencing the biggest rise in food prices since 1977, may have to get used to a shortage of fresh vegetables as rising prices and unpredictable weather hit domestic production.

Consumers have faced shortages of tomatoes, cucumbers and peppers in recent weeks after a poor harvest in North Africa cut supplies. To make matters worse, UK production is expected to hit an all-time low this year as expensive energy keeps farmers away from growing in greenhouses.

Industry data from market research firm Kantar showed on Tuesday that UK food price inflation hit a record high of 17.5% in the four weeks to March 19, highlighting the challenge for policy makers.

The chief executive of the British Growers Association said the future of fresh food in the country is now in question. “There is a limit to how long producers can continue to produce something at a loss,” he said.

Growers, farmers’ unions and shopkeepers are warning of impending shortages that could soon spread to other domestic crops such as leeks, cauliflower and carrots due to summer drought and winter frosts.

The secretary of the Lea Valley Growers Association, whose members produce about three-quarters of the UK’s cucumber and sweet pepper crop, said that by March, about half had not yet been planted, and 10% of members had ceased operations last year.

empty shelves

“There is a real danger that empty shelves will become a habit,” said Minette Butters, president of the National Farmers Union.

The association, which expects UK horticulture production to hit its lowest level since registration began in 1985 in 2023, has been warning for months of the risk of the sector being excluded from a government scheme to help companies struggling with energy costs.

For many retailers, the ability to avoid shortages will depend on how successful they are in purchasing goods from overseas.

This may be complicated by the practice of British supermarkets to set prices for the entire season, while their European Union competitors are more flexible, one manufacturer, which also imports and packs products, told Reuters.

The UK’s exit from the bloc has also played a role, as increased red tape has deterred drivers from traveling to the UK, which may also explain why supermarket shelves in mainland Europe remain stocked.