A new retreat has been noted UN Global Index For product prices in February as it sank to its lowest level in 17 months, but that didn’t hit the pockets of consumers, who continue to see big price increases on supermarket shelves. The UN Index, which tracks food prices, fell 0.6% in February, ending 11 months of declines, the biggest decline in three decades of tracking. Falling butter and dairy prices contributed to the decline in February, with overall food prices down 19% from a record high set a year ago when the Russian invasion of Ukraine hit grain exports. In particular, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Price Index, which tracks the world’s most traded food, averaged 129.8 points last month, compared with 130.6 in January, the agency said. This is the lowest figure since September 2021.

A year after the start of the war, grain prices are under pressure due to record harvests in countries such as Russia and Australia, as well as falling prices for butter and meat. However, it will take time for this price de-escalation to spread to supermarket shelves, where price increases continue due to rising energy and transport costs. The UN Index, which tracks five major food categories, is at its lowest level since September 2021. According to Bloomberg, there are some indications that food prices could fall in some parts of the world. In Paraguay, inflation was at its lowest since December 2021 as food and fuel prices declined. “There is inflation, we live with it,” said John Bason, chief financial officer of Associated British Foods Plc. Tough commercial negotiations are a daily occurrence between suppliers and supermarkets. “We all understand that this is a difficult time for everyone,” he said.

American fast food chain Wendy’s expects food prices to rise by about 5% this year, with prices for beef declining slightly. Kraft Heinz recently said it has no plans for further price increases in North America, Europe, Latin America and much of Asia. About a month ago, international organizations such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and market analysts warned that not only has food inflation not come down, but prices are expected to remain high for some time. The biggest wake-up call came from the World Bank in its latest food security report released in January. At the same time, five major risks to food prices remain: the cost of fertilizers, the cost of energy resources, the risk of termination of the agreement on the export of grain from Ukraine, climate change and speculation.