air travel are recovering even as China lifts the last remaining restrictions on it coronavirus, a stark observation is starting to emerge, namely that the world is short of the planes it needs, according to the Bloomberg news agency. Carriers ranging from United Airlines Holdings to Air India have or are seeking orders for hundreds of aircraft. Thus, the two leading aircraft manufacturing companies Boeing and Airbus are talking in every possible way about the excessive loading of orders. However, supply chain restrictions mean that these aircraft, which are either already on order or will be ordered, will not be delivered for several years. According to investment firm Jefferies, there are currently backlogs for 12,720 aircraft. What does all of this mean? Those high airfares, which passengers have protested in recent months, are not going anywhere. It is estimated that things can get worse before they get better. “People are used to reduced fares during the pandemic, and opening up China will complicate the whole system,” notes Ajay Otni, founder of LiveFromALounge.com, a website for frequent travelers. “Not only the lack of aircraft, but other factors such as oil prices are causing headaches.”

While the airline could potentially lower ticket prices, such a move would weaken other carriers, “resulting in even higher fares in the long run,” Authney said. Boeing and Airbus, the aircraft giants that largely enjoy a duopoly in passenger aircraft deliveries, have sold out their most popular narrow-aisle models until at least 2029. Growing demand from airlines as people travel again, carriers are also restarting aging fleets, straining the supply chain system, from acquiring needed components to labor shortages. A few days ago, in December, the European Airbus revised its plan to deliver 700 aircraft for 2022, citing problems with the supply chain. At the same time, he had previously warned that the surge in energy prices would particularly burden smaller, energy-intensive manufacturers, such as those who make parts after casting and forging.

And according to Air Lease founder and aviation legend Steve Yudvar-Hazy, every aircraft delivered to one of the world’s largest lessors in the past two years has arrived way behind schedule. “We didn’t receive a single aircraft on time, be it a 737 Max, or a 787, or an A330, A350,” he said. “And the worst was the A321neo. We have had delays of up to six or seven months compared to the month of contract delivery and actual delivery. It’s a combination of problems with supply chains growing too fast and labor shortages. Production workers cannot work from home. Well, that was a real problem,” he said.