On Wednesday, Russia held a tripartite meeting between the defense ministers of Turkey, Syria and Russia, the first since the start of the Syrian war in 2011, AFP reports.

What could be the consequences of the rapprochement between Damascus and Ankara for the Kurdish forces stationed in the northeast of the country with the support of the US and under the threat of a ground operation by Turkey?

What is the relationship between Turkey and Syria?

Before the start of the conflict in Syria, Ankara was a privileged political and economic partner of Damascus.

But the war, which began with anti-government demonstrations and turned into a complex conflict, significantly strained relations.

Ankara has sided with the political opposition and rebel groups and now hosts nearly four million refugees on its territory.

In 2021, a brief informal exchange between the foreign ministers of the two countries hinted at rapprochement.

Ankara and Damascus have acknowledged contacts with secret services, and in August Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu called for reconciliation between the Syrian regime and the opposition in Syria.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has repeatedly called Assad a “criminal” in recent years, in November spoke of a “possible” meeting with him.

According to analysts, Russia plays a key role in bringing together the two allies united by a common “enemy”, namely the Kurdish forces, which are classified by Ankara as “terrorists” and supported by Washington.

Why this moment?

According to Moscow, the talks on Wednesday were devoted to “ways to solve the Syrian crisis and the refugee problem” and “joint efforts in the fight against extremist groups.”

The meeting was organized due to “developments related to the planned Turkish military operation in northern Syria, which Moscow has prevented,” Bassam Abu Abdullah, director of the Center for Strategic Studies in Damascus, told AFP.

Since November 20, Turkey has increased its bombardment of Kurdish militant positions in northern Syria and is threatening to launch a ground offensive.

On the other hand, several rounds of talks between Damascus and the Kurdish administration, which controls large areas of northern and eastern Syria, including oil fields, have failed.

“Erdogan is under intense political pressure to launch a military operation in Syria and resettle as many Syrians as possible” in his country before the June elections, according to Nick Heras, a researcher at the New Lines Institute.

“If they get the green light from Assad to conduct air operations against the Kurds, war will begin,” he added.

What scenario awaits the Kurds?

“The immediate objective of the three countries is to eliminate the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF, an armed coalition led by the Kurds),” Fabrice Balanche, a lecturer at Lumiere Lyon 2 University, told AFP.

According to him, Ankara wants to “eliminate the Kurdish threat” and simply expel the Kurdish population from the north of Syria”, while for Moscow “it is about eliminating the US ally in Syria, the SDF, and thus strengthening the ally of Bashar al-Assad.

Indeed, the SDF led the fight against the Islamic State, driven from its strongholds in Syria in 2019 with the help of an international coalition led by Washington.

On Friday, the Syrian Democratic Council, the political arm of the Syrian Democratic Forces, criticized Wednesday’s meeting, calling on Syrians to “oppose this alliance.”

For Damascus, “it is about restoring this territory (northeast of the country, no) and especially its oil wealth,” according to Balansh.

In addition, “the regime needs Turkey to neutralize the jihadists in Idleb,” he added, referring to the groups that control about half of the northwestern province of Idleb.

If the Kurds refuse to withdraw to an area 30 km from the Turkish border, as Ankara is urging them to do, the three-way meeting will be a “precursor to a Turkish invasion”, according to Balanch, which is only “a matter of time”. .