Complications after recent diplomatic incident at Tripoli airport with foreign minister Nikos Dendias and his counterpart in the Tripoli government, as well as his resurgence Turkish-Libyan memorandum last month they resurfaced the ongoing political crisis in Libya. Although nothing should be taken for granted under the current circumstances, Athens, which is actively following developments, cannot ignore the situation on the ground and, above all, the conflict zones of influence in Libya.

The country with the most important national interests in Libya is Egyptwho supports parliament and the marshal Khalifa Haftar in the east of the country. Egypt supported Haftar in 2020 and continues to support him to this day, despite the “discoveries” he made for other political forces. Haftar’s military forces provide Egypt with stability and security on its western border, allaying concerns about the spread of extremist Islamic groups. Egypt also backs Fathi Basaga, the prime minister elected by the country’s parliament and backed by Haftar.

Turkey has been the most dynamic player in recent years, especially since 2019. In August, in Basagi’s attempt to seize Tripoli, rumors of the use of Turkish Barayktar drones by the defenders led to accusations of Turkish re-intervention, which she denies. The Tripoli government is believed to be clearly within the Turkish “sphere of influence”, as evidenced by the revival of the Turkish-Libyan memorandum.

Western influence is waning. The traditional European power in Libya, Italy, has been sidelined by France and Turkey in recent developments. The Tripoli government’s agreement to grant Turkish energy rights worried Rome, as the Italian EMI had significant interests in the fields of western Libya. However, Italy remains Libya’s main trading partner. France has been a major supporter of Marshal Haftar, allegedly helping to arm and train his forces. The actions of the French president in the country have largely sidelined the former colonial power, Italy, even in terms of the country’s significant energy wealth, with Total gaining a significant advantage over ENI. The US does not have a significant presence in the current crisis. The heavy Russian presence in Libya raises questions about whether the US will choose to take a more active role in the country in the future, especially as the energy crisis eases and Russia’s Wagner group continues to control Libya’s rich oil resources. Of the Arab countries, in addition to Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia actively participated. The UAE supported Haftar in 2020 with drone attacks and significant financial assistance. Since then, the UAE has maintained a neutral stance in Libya, having developed relations with the Dbeiba government.

The warming of relations between the UAE and Turkey may also be important, meaning that in the latest tensions, the UAE has been satisfied with the role of mediator. The UAE has not recognized Basaga as the legitimate government of Libya. The Saudis openly support Marshal Haftar, primarily as a counterbalance to the expansion of Turkish influence in the country. Saudi Arabia even issued a statement with Egypt in which it expressed its support for the legitimacy of Bashagi’s parliament and government, calling for the withdrawal of all foreign forces.

open memphis

In an attempt to soften the impression created by the episode that unfolded on Thursday at Tripoli airport, the chairman of the Libyan Presidential Council, Mohamed El Menfi, is moving forward. It is noted that Mr. Menfi was scheduled to meet on Thursday with Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias, who canceled his landing in Tripoli, as his colleague from the local government, Najla el-Mangush, was waiting for him without such an agreement. “The Presidential Council wishes to continue friendly relations with all countries with which the Libyan state has diplomatic relations,” said Mr. Menfi yesterday, who stressed through social networks that “Greece is at the forefront of these countries, therefore we wish to eliminate all causes of misunderstanding and avoid any diplomatic incident by rejecting any escalation.” Mr. Menfi added that communication with the Greek Ministry of Foreign Affairs would follow, “to clarify the reasons for the cancellation of the visit of the Minister of Foreign Affairs to the capital on Thursday morning.”