On his charge state debt leads, according to information from banking sources, to its quick decision Eurostat how to sign up for guarantees which were provided by the Greek state in the context of securitization red loans“Hercules”.

The information indicates that the majority of respondents from Eurostat, regarding the methodology to be followed in the case of Greece and Italy in this matter, were in favor of the original position of Eurostat, i.e. calculating the entire amount of debt from the very beginning. . The position of Greece, which was reportedly supported by the European Central Bank in conjunction with the Bank of Greece, was to count the debt only on the amount that is confiscated each time, at the time of the confiscation, and not to advance. According to Eurostat, the registration should be done in advance, because the risk that the Greek state takes on individuals is great, since it guarantees 90% of the bonds, senior bonds.

It is not known if the €18.3 billion guarantee, a 9 percentage point charge, will be added to the debt immediately, or if it will be done after the securitization packages are settled one by one. According to a recent publication by AXIA Research, the burden will be only 5 billion euros.

The picture will become clearer in the coming days as Eurostat releases what it calls a manual, a manual on how these debt guarantees should be calculated.

The upcoming Eurostat decision is not expected to be positive for Greece, banking sources say.

The Greek side objected to these negotiations ex post facto, as “Hercules” passed through the European authorities without raising any questions. Eurostat, in order to come to a conclusion, requested the opinion of the competent European authorities, statistical offices and central banks.

However, the government argues that even if the debt is burdened by the entire amount, that is, by about 9 percentage points of GDP, essentially nothing changes, since this debt does not earn interest, to the extent that it is not canceled. In fact, in ODDIX they have already factored in a 40% discount over the next 6 years in the debt sustainability analysis that markets are refreshing.

At the same time, the grace period that servicers had to pay on bonds to the Ministry of Finance ends in 2023. They are reportedly geared towards asking for a 6 month extension as their income is not moving particularly well.

In any case, public debt is estimated to fall this year to 169.1% of GDP from 193.3% in 2021, so even if it is burdened by 9 percentage points, thanks to Hercules, it will remain well below last year. level. However, the “gift” of high inflation in the form of debt reduction as a percentage of GDP will be largely lost.