Vladimir Putin’s expected victory in Sunday’s election gives the president a free hand to continue the war in Ukraine, despite the loss of life, and perhaps further test the West, analysts cited by international media say. At home, the Kremlin leader will try to strengthen his control over society by turning Russia into a militarized state, sources close to the Kremlin, who wished to remain anonymous, told independent media.

The result of the Russian presidential election was never in doubt. However, many are now wondering what will happen domestically and on the front of Russia’s conflict with Ukraine and the West after the re-election of Vladimir Putin as the head of the country with an impressive result of over 87%.

Most analysts and officials quoted by Russian and international media suggest that the Kremlin regime will continue relentlessly down the path of cross-border conflict, while strengthening society formation at home in Russia to achieve its goals.

Putin was very confident in his army’s chances after the victory in Avdiivka, and Ukraine is facing a crisis of ammunition and combat capability. The president signaled this even before the vote, saying that Moscow “fully” owns the initiative.

Domestically, analysts expect a continuation of the conservative nationalist ideological campaign as Putin tries to turn Russia into a militarized society, writes the BBC.

The fact that Western leaders disputed the integrity of the election, and some critics pointed to Putin’s improbable rating, did not seem to matter much to Russian officials.

From the Kremlin’s point of view, the resounding victory gives the president not only a new mandate but also strong legitimacy, while sending a clear message: Putin’s war against Ukraine has the full support of his people.

This is exactly what the regime wanted. Citing regional sources in Russia, the independent Russian publication Meduza writes that the Kremlin itself would require officials to score more than 80% to demonstrate the support enjoyed by the president.

Putin has a free hand in Ukraine

As for the war, the Russian president seems to have enough room for maneuver at the moment.

Putin is already looking increasingly confident, especially after the fall of the eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka in February this year. In an interview with moderator and propagandist Dmitry Kiselyov before the elections, Putin highlighted this very topic for discussion.

“Conducting negotiations now only because they have run out of ammunition is kind of ridiculous on our part,” he said, noting that Ukraine is in trouble.

In fact, noted Tetyana Stanova, an expert at the Eurasian Center of Carnegie Russia, in the pre-election analysis, Putin is declaratively in favor of ending the war at the negotiating table.

“But this means the capitulation of Ukraine,” Stanova was quoted as saying by the Associated Press.

Still, Russia’s progress in eastern Ukraine has come at a huge human cost, according to the West, and some sources have suggested that Moscow may have to launch a new round of mobilization.

Whether or not this will happen remains to be seen.

Bryn Rosenfeld, a Cornell University professor who studies post-communist politics, hinted at this when he told the Associated Press that Putin was only giving Russians bad news after the election.

However, Stanova suggested that it is quite possible that additional mobilization will not be needed. Explanation: Many Russians from poor regions have already voluntarily joined the army to receive high salaries.

Some observers suggest that, emboldened by the election results and a sense of the weakening of the unity of Ukraine’s allies, Putin may try to test the West. Exactly how this will happen is not yet clear, and it may also depend on the outcome of the US election in November.

Alexandra Vakrou, executive director of Harvard University’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, suggested to the Associated Press that such a test could be a cyberattack.

In February, the Congress of the separatist region of Transnistria turned to Moscow for diplomatic “protection” due to the alleged increase in pressure from Chisinau.

The call leaves plenty of room for “escalation,” Christian Kantier, a professor of international relations at Oakland University, also told The Associated Press.

War becomes the meaning of existence of the Russian state

Putin’s plans will in any case be impossible without ensuring full control inside the country.

So far, he seems to have succeeded in almost completely eliminating internal opposition, or at any rate its visible forms. Oleksiy Navalny is dead, as is his unexpected vehement opponent Yevgeny Prigozhin, and rank-and-file critics of the regime have retreated to less vocal forms of opposition for fear of reprisals.

But the Kremlin wants more – the transformation of society.

The regime began its transformation from a “belligerent state” to a “war state” even before Putin’s victory, as the invasion of Ukraine put the country under martial law, a source close to the Kremlin told the independent Russian publication The Moscow Times. cloak of anonymity.

“The nature of the regime is now undergoing transformation. The war becomes the meaning of his existence,” the source said.

In its new capacity, the Putin regime will face several important conceptual challenges. These questions concern the future of both Putin and Russia.

On the one hand, the Russian leader is likely to try to cement a positive historical legacy, although sources told The Moscow Times that this will prove to be an insurmountable task in the long run.

“After his death, all sins will be blamed on him,” said a source close to the government leadership.

Then Putin and the Kremlin will try to consolidate the ideological project of the Russian state. On the eve of the elections, pro-Kremlin think tanks spoke about the need for such a project.

This ideology is already crystallizing and will be built around the “family” as a conservative hierarchical concept, said a source close to the Kremlin. This is clearly visible in the homophobic policy of the authorities, for example, in the speeches of Putin, who contrasted Russian society with the “decadent” Western one.

The source of The Moscow Times said that the idea of ​​the family is aimed not only at the core of society, but also at the organization of the Russian state.

“This is a very clear picture for the faction in power in Russia. This means that there is a “supreme arbiter” who bestows titles and distributes benefits. The entire political machine of Russia is organized around this,” the interlocutor of an independent Russian publication added.

Challenges of the new mandate

However, Putin’s regime may face serious challenges in the future.

The logic of war requires citizens to become active political actors who support the regime rather than obedient voters, another source close to the Kremlin told The Moscow Times. And this gives rise to certain fears.

“An attempt to control people’s private lives, which the regime has never done before, may meet with mass resistance, which will have to be suppressed with greater brutality,” the source said.

To ensure control, the Kremlin will also have to rely on a new group of businessmen who may be personally indebted to Putin and who did not make their fortunes in the 1990s.

The process of redistribution of assets has already begun, but it carries certain risks, a current government official told an independent publication.

Another challenge is the Russian economy. Behind the impressive numbers and economic indicators of the first two years of the war, there are great risks due to the overheating of the economy.

The country also faces an acute labor shortage, as Putin himself admitted in an interview on the eve of the presidential election.

Defense and security accounts for about 40 percent of the budget, affecting other areas such as education and health, a Reuters analysis showed.

Wages are rising, but Putin has failed to deliver on his 2018 pledge to make “decisive progress” in raising living standards, and real incomes have stagnated over the past decade.

The short-term priorities are the reduction of inflation, which is 7.6%, and the easing of budget tensions. But Putin made it clear that this would mean higher taxes for companies and the richest people.

Despite the problems, Kremlin insiders assumed that the survival of the regime was not threatened.

“With all these problems, Putin’s regime could potentially exist in a state of rot for another 30 years without anything fatal happening to it,” a source close to the leadership of the Russian government told The Moscow Times.

“The last thing he will do is stop allocating resources to the war,” the quoted source added.

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