High oil prices, sanctions evasion and government investment provide Russia with sufficient resources to continue the war in Ukraine at its current intensity for at least two more years, a Lithuanian intelligence report says.

Russia has reformed and strengthened its army, which fought in Ukraine in 2023, and is poised to expand military capabilities along its border with NATO, including near Finland, which joined the alliance last year, intelligence agencies said. Lithuanians in an annual threat assessment, with faced by the Baltic countries.

“Moscow is able to assess lessons learned and improve its combat effectiveness,” said the report, which was banned from publication early Thursday.

The report was compiled by two departments: the State Security Counterintelligence Department and the Defense Intelligence and Security Service of the Ministry of National Defense of Lithuania.

Russia has beefed up its military forces in the north and west of the country in response to what Moscow sees as a NATO build-up near its borders, Russia’s defense minister said on Tuesday.

Lithuania, a neighbor of both Russia and its ally Belarus, was once ruled by Moscow but is now a member of NATO and the European Union.

According to Lithuanian special services, Russian intelligence is trying to avoid sanctions imposed on the country’s defense industry after its invasion of Ukraine.

Although Russia openly supplies weapons and ammunition only from Iran and North Korea, China has become the largest supplier of microchips and the yuan has become the main currency for Russia’s international operations, the report said.

Also, since Russia deployed nuclear warheads in Belarus in 2023, it has been gradually building the infrastructure there to use them.

The report also noted that Russian and Belarusian intelligence services stepped up efforts to recruit Lithuanians crossing the border, and authorities detained several Lithuanian citizens in 2023, accusing them of providing data to Belarusian intelligence services in exchange for money.

China stepped up its espionage efforts in Lithuania in 2023 following a decision by authorities in Vilnius to allow Taiwan to open a de facto embassy on its territory in 2021, according to a report cited by Reuters.

The report states that “cyber actors affiliated with China” regularly probe the vulnerabilities of Lithuanian government institutions “with the aim of penetrating their networks” and extorting data.