The Kremlin is preparing a hybrid operation in the Republic of Moldova, similar to the one used before its invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and in February 2022, so that it can justify a possible escalation of the conflict in the region, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

ISW says that Russia has prepared the ground for such a hybrid operation in the Republic of Moldova in the near future.

How the Kremlin and the Russian media are trying to sow political instability in the Republic of Moldova

In its latest assessment of the war in Ukraine, ISW shows that Kremlin officials and representatives are trying to create information conditions to justify possible Russian attempts to destabilize the Republic of Moldova and prevent its integration into the EU.

The fact that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov expanded the narrative against Chisinau and made new accusations against the leadership of the Republic of Moldova suggests that the Kremlin is making efforts to create the conditions for a hybrid destabilization campaign, the Institute for the Study of War believes. And the spokeswoman of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, accused the Chisinau government of trying to economically “stifle” Transnistria, preventing a diplomatic solution to the Transnistrian conflict and facing widespread internal dissatisfaction with the policies of the Chisinau government, writes ISW.

The problem of Transnistria

Additionally, a Russian military blogger recently raised the issue of Transnistria to promote the Kremlin’s narratives, saying that the Republic of Moldova is “arming itself to reintegrate Transnistria by force,” and Russia should prepare for this.

This year, the Institute for the Study of War is not the first to warn that Kremlin rhetoric and Russian state media continue to encourage pro-Russian separatists in the Republic of Moldova, possibly in an effort to sow political instability and division.

Vadym Krasnoselskyi, president of the Russian-backed separatist republic of Transnistria, told reporters from the Russian state news agency TASS that increasing “militarization” of Moldova threatens Transnistria.

Over the past year, the Moldovan government has increased its military budget, participated in joint exercises with NATO, and received military aid from European powers to protect itself from further military incursions by Russia.

“When our neighbor, with whom there has been an unresolved conflict for more than 30 years and treacherously attacked our peaceful cities in the past, suddenly rushes to arm itself, it is, of course, a threat,” Krasnoselskyi said.

• Read also: Republic of Moldova: Russian peacekeepers in Transnistria, Chisinau accuses of breach of commitments

Transnistria is a separatist region, internationally recognized as part of Moldova. Russian troops have occupied Transnistria since the early 1990s, when Russia invaded the region under the pretext of protecting ethnic Russians.

And in a preliminary assessment, ISW revealed that Russia is slowly building an information space aimed at destabilizing Moldova and justifying any future campaigns, casting Russia as the protector of “Russian-speaking persons at risk” in Moldova. This approach is almost identical to the narratives constructed by Russia to justify a large-scale invasion of Ukraine.

General David Petraeus, former CIA director and former head of international forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, recently said that President Vladimir Putin “will not stop there” if Russia wins in Ukraine and the Republic of “Moldova will be next in line, or perhaps one of the Baltic countries”.

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