Russian President Vladimir Putin told his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping during a meeting in Moscow in March that Russia would “fight for (at least) five years” in Ukraine, News.ro reported, citing diplomatic sources cited by the Japanese daily Nikkei.

It appears to have been Putin’s way of summarizing the situation, which at the time was unfavorable for Russia, and reassuring Xi Jinping that Russia would ultimately emerge victorious.

The likely consequence was that a protracted war would favor China’s well-armed partner.

On the other hand, this remark was also a warning for Xi not to change his pro-Russian position, the Japanese daily commented.

The March visit to Moscow was Xi Jinping’s first trip to Russia since Moscow launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. It was also the first time Xi made an overseas trip to a major country since China abandoned its strict COIVD zero. politicians

Whether Xi is convinced or not, what Putin told him during the meeting is key to understanding a series of mysterious developments in Russian-Chinese relations, from a Chinese peacekeeping mission to Europe in May to the sacking of his foreign minister a few months later. This is evidenced by the Nikkei Asia analysis.

The New York Times recently reported that, at least since September, Putin has been using proxies to signal that he is open to a cease-fire, provided that Russia can keep the territory it has won so far.

But given what Putin told Xi in March, the Russian leader’s stated intentions for a ceasefire should not be taken as such. Putin may simply want to create the illusion that he is moving towards a truce or even peace ahead of the presidential elections in Russia in March, believing that such an atmosphere will help him in the elections, writes the Japanese publication.

Meanwhile, China under Xi has revised its strategy, based in part on the “five-year” deadline Putin gave in March. If the war between Russia and Ukraine drags on, it will have a significant impact on Xi’s plans and ambitions for his unprecedented third term as president of China and general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party. Xi’s grand goal of unifying Taiwan with mainland China could also suffer, the Japanese newspaper said in its analysis.

Xi already has Putin in spades

But it is unlikely that Xi Jinping was completely convinced by Putin’s words. According to Nikkei, Xi has already criticized Putin after the Sino-Russian summit on February 4, 2022, the opening day of the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics.

Putin was the only major power leader to attend the opening ceremony, and Xi relied on his reputation to create the impression that Beijing would successfully host the international sporting extravaganza. For his part, the Russian leader took full advantage of the feeling that China owed him its presence.

During their meeting at the Winter Olympics, Putin gave no indication that he was about to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. But that invasion came on February 24 as a blitzkrieg that Russia believed would be strong enough to quickly capture the capital, Kyiv.

But the sudden attack caused panic in China. At the talks held 20 days ago, Xi and Putin announced a “boundless partnership” between their countries. Therefore, it was only natural for people around the world to conclude that China tacitly approved Russia’s large-scale invasion.

But it wasn’t like that. China misjudged Russia’s true intentions. Beijing, which knew for sure that Russian troops were located near the border with Ukraine, must have concluded that these troops would invade only the eastern part of Ukraine. In any case, the Xi administration did not expect the full-scale invasion, especially one that took place just four days after the closing of the Beijing Winter Olympics and a week before the opening of the supposed Winter Paralympics, to be a celebration of peace. .

Thus, China simply could not afford to fully trust Putin’s statement that he would “fight for five years” a year later, Nikkei reports.

What did Xi do after Putin told him the war would last 5 years

Given the complex international political situation, China had to think about how to protect its own interests, regardless of how events will develop for Russia in Ukraine. And that meant sending a “peacekeeping mission” to Europe, including Ukraine and Russia, less than two months after Putin told Xi that Russia would continue fighting for years to come. The mission demonstrated a slight change in Xi’s pro-Russian position.

It is also consistent with Xi Jinping’s repeated assertions that the world is currently undergoing “profound changes unprecedented in centuries.”

If the war in Ukraine were to last five years – it has already been going on for almost two years – China would be under more pressure from Western powers than ever because of its extensive military cooperation with Russia. China’s already struggling economy will be further hit by sanctions imposed by an international coalition against China and Russia. This gave China another reason to send this peacekeeping mission: it has to insure itself not to share the fate of Russia.

The Chinese mission headed by Beijing’s special representative for Eurasia Li Hui met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi in Kyiv. Of course, the mission caused Putin dissatisfaction, perhaps even irritation. The diplomatic move went against the wishes of the Russian leader and showed that China did not take into account his “five-year” deadline.

To make matters worse, less than a month later in June, Wagner, the Russian private military organization led by Yevgeny Prigozhin that held the key to the hostilities in Ukraine, launched a short-lived insurgency, dealing Putin a mercy blow.

Putin, panicking, prompts Xi

For Putin, who suddenly had to face a growing storm, keeping China in Russia’s camp was an urgent matter. So he provided some information, the Nikkei analysis continues.

During the visit of Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andriy Rudenko to Beijing on June 25, he briefed high-ranking Chinese officials about the then Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang. The clue is related to the mystery of the sudden purge of Qin, who was dismissed and disappeared from the public scene in China. According to the Nikkei, Russia would have passed on information to Beijing that Qin, who used to be China’s ambassador to the US, was actually recruited by American services and is now a Washington agent. Moscow would also present some evidence: the Chinese ambassador would have had an extramarital affair with a Chinese TV presenter who lived more in the US and Great Britain, from whom he would have given birth to a child through a surrogate mother from the US.

Deception is a tactic often used in international politics. And the fact that both China and Russia are opaque countries makes it even more difficult to understand the business of the other side. Common sense does not fit, Nikkei concludes. In any case, the information salvo given by Russia to Beijing had the power to remove China’s most important diplomat and turn the world political situation in its favor. It also affected China’s position vis-à-vis the US and eventually turned into a major domestic political issue in China.