European Union heavyweights are preparing for a bitter row with Hungary this week over aid to Ukraine and the possibility of opening membership talks, both key goals for Kyiv as its war with Russia stalls, Reuters reports.

European Union leaders will gather in Brussels on Thursday and Friday for a summit where they must decide on proposals to provide Kiev with economic support in the amount of 50 billion euros, allocate another 20 billion euros for the Ukrainian army and start negotiations on Ukraine’s accession.

Securing new financial aid from Europe is important as uncertainty grows over future US aid to Kiev, which relies on Western financial aid in its war with Russia.

But Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who boasts of his ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin, has threatened to veto aid and accession talks at the Dec. 14-15 summit.

“We are at a decisive moment”

All three decisions, as well as the fourth decision regarding the 12th package of EU sanctions against Russia, require the unanimous support of all 27 countries of the bloc.

“We are at a crucial moment,” a senior EU official said, referring to the stalemate on the battlefield and the failure of the US Congress to approve President Joe Biden’s $60 billion aid package for Ukraine.

“It is very important that… the European Union demonstrates clear and full support for Ukraine. This message would not only be for Moscow, it would also be a message for Washington, it would also be a message for Kyiv,” the official said on condition of anonymity.

Trust in Europe is also at stake, as the European bloc has so far promised to support Ukraine as long as necessary.

“We are counting on positive decisions. Europe must resolutely defend its values ​​and unity,” President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi said on Sunday evening.

“Viktor Orbán will know when it’s time to come down from the tree”

Orbán is no stranger to making waves in the European Union, according to Reuters. Hungary managed to “soften” sanctions against Russia and last December vetoed an agreement to provide Ukraine with 18 billion euros.

He finally allowed aid to be approved after days of trading on EU funds for Hungary stalled over fears of a democratic rollback under Viktor Orbán’s regime.

As the EU again tries to win back Orbán’s support for Ukraine, the European Commission is expected this week to unblock Hungary’s access to €10 billion in funds.

Speaking against the start of accession negotiations with Kyiv, Orban initially complained about Ukraine’s attitude towards the Hungarian minority in the country. Since then, he has argued that Ukraine is too corrupt and not ready to join the EU. He called on the EU bloc, instead of deciding on new aid to Ukraine, to hold a “strategic discussion” on aid to Kyiv.

Several diplomats said that if Hungary vetoed Ukraine’s EU membership, it would also not move forward with Orbán-backed candidates from Georgia and Bosnia.

“Our sense was that Orbán always knew how far he could go and that he would know when the time was right to come down,” said a second senior EU diplomat.

Those who expect Orbán to concede say a possible compromise would be to delay the start of negotiations with Ukraine until March. Others, however, fear that this time the Hungarian leader may not be convinced.

Orban will meet, in particular, with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who said that Berlin supports the start of negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the EU.

“Will there ever be blood on the walls? probably”

While Orbán is perhaps the most vocal critic of the expansion of aid to Ukraine, last month’s ruling by Germany’s Constitutional Court further complicated negotiations with the EU, creating a huge hole in the budget of its richest member.

If Hungary were to veto Ukraine’s allocation of 50 billion euros from the bloc’s common budget, the other 26 EU member states could supplement their bilateral contributions to Kyiv in a more complicated and expensive way.

Uncertainty also exists regarding the future of EU military aid to Ukraine.

A proposal to use an EU-run military fund – the European Peace Fund (EPF) – to provide Ukraine with €20 billion in arms and other support over the next four years has been met with resistance from Germany.

Some EU members are pushing for the summit to allocate at least five billion euros to Ukraine through the EPF next year – a plan EU foreign ministers will discuss with their Ukrainian counterparts on Monday.

Despite the bleak outlook, some diplomats in Brussels believe the EU bloc will avoid the worst-case scenario and fulfill some of its promises to Ukraine.

“Will it be difficult? So. Will it be extremely difficult? Probably. Will there ever be blood on the walls? Probably. But I continue to believe that a solution can be found,” another senior EU official said.