Russian troops have been conducting offensive operations in several areas of the front during the most difficult weather conditions, trying to seize and hold the initiative ahead of the Russian presidential election in March 2024, according to analysts of the Institute for the Study of War. At the same time, Ukrainian troops are trying to strengthen their defensive positions.

Currently, Russian forces are increasing their offensive along most of the front line in Ukraine, particularly along the border between Kharkiv and Luhansk regions, near Bakhmut and in the direction of Avdiyivka, as officials have repeatedly noted Ukrainian military forces, and Russian forces are also conducting continuous ground attacks. in the west of the Zaporizhzhia region.

The current pace of fighting along the entire frontline in Ukraine is broadly consistent with ISW’s current assessment that Russian forces are looking to regain the initiative from at least mid-November 2023, the US think tank said.

Recent statements by the Ukrainian military also indicate that Russian forces have been able to seize the initiative along the Kharkiv-Luhansk border, near Bakhmut and along the Avdiyivka-Donetsk city axis, while Ukrainian forces retain the initiative in key areas of southern Ukraine, as evidenced by ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks in western Zaporizhzhia and a prolonged, larger-than-usual Ukrainian presence in eastern Kherson.

In recent weeks, Russian forces have continued offensive operations along the Kharkiv-Luhansk border despite snow, frost and mud in eastern Ukraine, and have launched sustained ground attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast despite mud and strong winds in much of the south.

In large areas of the front line, particularly in northeastern and eastern Ukraine, temperatures are dropping sharply and marshy terrain is freezing, making mechanized operations easier for both Russian and Ukrainian forces.

The fact that Russian forces tried to seize the initiative and continue offensive operations in early to mid-November 2023, during the most difficult weather conditions of the year, instead of waiting for the deep freeze, suggests that Russian forces are under pressure to get the upper hand . fully and support the initiative until the first months of 2024, until the upcoming Russian presidential elections in March 2024.

However, Kyiv seems to have decided to significantly reduce its offensive operations on its own initiative before the start of Russian offensive operations.

However, it remains unclear whether current Russian offensive operations will create the conditions for significant operational gains in the near future.

Difficult weather conditions slowed the pace of Moscow’s advance along most of the front line, increased Russian casualties and further undermined the morale of Russian soldiers.

On the other hand, Ukrainian forces appear to be using this period of bad weather and ongoing Russian offensive operations to establish and strengthen defensive positions along those sides of the front where they have not conducted counteroffensive operations, thus conserving troops and resources for future offensive efforts, notes ISW .

The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyi, and the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Army, General Valery Zaluzhny, recently announced their intention to strengthen fortifications and defense capabilities in the entire theater of operations, in particular in areas where Russian troops conduct offensive operations.

The creation of Ukrainian tactical defense positions will likely enhance the ability of Ukrainian forces to defend against prolonged and costly Russian attacks with fewer of their own forces and/or with less defensive losses.

In addition, the creation of Ukrainian defensive tactical positions can become a springboard for future offensive operations, wherever and whenever Kyiv forces want to attack.

The creation of local defensive positions in areas that Kyiv does not consider a priority for current or imminent counteroffensive operations is a reasonable step and does not indicate that Ukraine has abandoned all plans for possible future counteroffensives.